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    Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rebound but Momentum has Turned Negative

    Abstract:Supply declined in the latest week

      Natural gas prices were nearly unchanged on Wednesday after testing lower levels early in the trading session. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is expected to be warmer than normal throughout the mid-west for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days. Supply fell in the latest week due to declines in dry natural gas production.

      Technical Analysis

      Natural gas prices rebounded from session lows and closing the session nearly unchanged. Resistance is seen near the 10-day moving average at 2.69. Support is seen near the December lows at 2.26. Medium-term momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. Short-term omentum has also turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal.

      Supply Declined

      Supply fell because of declines in dry natural gas production. According to data from the EIA, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.8% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.9% compared with the previous report week. Average net imports from Canada increased by 2.0% from last week.

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