US-Iran 2nd talks boost USD; gold ~$4800, oil < $90.

On Thursday, US President Trump stated that the war between the US, Israel, and Iran is “coming to an end”, while the White House expressed optimism about reaching an agreement, stating that more face-to-face talks may be held in Pakistan this weekend. After hitting its lowest point since late February, the US dollar index rebounded and eventually almost closed flat, falling 0.01% to 98.08; The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.320%, while the 2-year Treasury yield sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate closed at 3.7860%. Spot gold remained stable around $4790 on Thursday, as significant progress was made in the US Iran peace talks. Trump announced a 10 day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and suggested that the US and Iran may sign an agreement over the weekend. The compromise on highly enriched uranium and the expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have driven down oil prices, eased inflationary pressures, and increased the probability of interest rate cuts. Short term peace dividends benefit risk assets, but there is still uncertainty in negotiations. It is recommended that investors closely monitor the outcome of this weekend's US Iran talks and be prepared for high-level fluctuations and potential pullbacks. Some Gulf countries and European leaders believe that it may take about six months for the US and Iran to reach a peace agreement, leading to a rebound in international oil prices. WTI crude oil ultimately closed up 1.41% at $92.73 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 3.26% at $97.99 per barrel.