DBG Markets: Market Report for Apr 1, 2026

Cautious Optimism Sparks Equities Rebound; Whats Next for US Equities, EURUSD and Precious Metals？

The global financial markets are experiencing a sudden shift in sentiment today, transitioning from severe risk-off panic into a state of cautious optimism. A slight de-escalation in Middle East war rhetoric has triggered a relief rally across global equities, while sticky inflation data in Europe is heavily impacting the currency markets.

US Equities Outlook: Rebound or Bearish Trap？

Consequently, the US equities market is staging a technical relief rally, but it remains heavily clouded by underlying uncertainty. For the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the broader S&P 500, this upward movement appears to be a classic short-covering bounce rather than a definitive structural reversal.

Both major indices remain deeply entrenched in bear territory following the brutal sell-offs of the previous quarter. Traders must treat any near-term rallies with extreme caution.

S&P500 Outlook

US500, Daily

Technically, despite the sharp rebound, the S&P 500 remains below the 6,500 mark, suggesting that the index is still trapped in bear territory. We need to see a clear, sustained break above this level to confirm that bulls have regained control.

Nasdaq100 Outlook

UT100, Daily

The same logic applies to the Nasdaq 100. As noted yesterday, a potential rebound from the 23,000 support level was in play. Now, the rebound has approached the 24,000 mark again, which serves as a major pivot level separating the bull and bear zones.

In the near term, the index may face heavy selling pressure at this resistance, making the 23,000 to 24,000 corridor the key battleground range for the Nasdaq.

Eurozone Inflation & EURUSD Outlook

Over in Europe, the latest Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data has thrown a fundamental wrench into the markets. Headline inflation has surprisingly ticked higher, driven almost entirely by the recent massive surge in global oil prices stemming from the Middle East supply panic.

This energy-induced inflation shock severely complicates the European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish policy path. The growing prospect of the ECB being forced to maintain restrictive interest rates for longer to combat sticky inflation is now acting as a crucial fundamental support pillar for the Euro.

EURUSD, H4 Chart

Technically, the EURUSD pair has staged a desperate, high-stakes rebound directly off the critical 1.1500 psychological support floor. Market participants are now intensely monitoring this zone to determine if 1.1500 has formed a definitive structural bottom.

While the EURUSD may not be flashing a full bullish reversal just yet, a confirmed floor at 1.1500 makes a recovery possible. For now, the pair is likely to remain range-bound as traders watch for clear reversal patterns.

Gold & Silver Outlook: Yield Pullback Ignites Precious Metals

Meanwhile, the precious metals sector is heavily capitalizing on a sudden shift in the bond market. US Treasury yields have experienced a noticeable near-term pullback from their highly restrictive peaks, immediately easing the massive gravitational downward pressure on non-yielding assets.

Gold Outlook

Gold (XAUUSD) has pounced on this yield retreat, staging a robust technical rebound. The absolute focus for Gold traders is now the $4,500 to $4,600 psychological zone. With US yields pulling back from recent highs, gold is perfectly positioned to test its next resistance. Any intraday dips are likely to be heavily bought.

XAUUSD, H2 Chart

Following yesterday's breakout above the $4,600 resistance, the $4,500 to $4,600 zone could now act as a new structural floor, setting the stage for further upside. In the near term, a dip toward the $4,600 support remains a prime buying opportunity, while $4,720 stands as the major immediate resistance.

Gold will likely retest the $4,800 area soon, provided the $4,600 support dip successfully validates the bullish structure.

Silver Outlook

XAGUSD, H2 Chart

The same dynamic applies to silver, which has now found solid support near the $70 mark. Meanwhile, $74 acts as the major overhead resistance. With silver currently tilting slightly above this resistance, the metal still risks a technical pullback.

However, if we see a dip near the $70 to $71 area, it presents a strong buying opportunity if this level proves to be a reliable floor. For now, traders should remain cautious near the $74 resistance, while treating the $70 to $71 zone as a primary “buy the dip” area for bulls.

Bottom Line & What to Watch Today

The financial markets are navigating a highly sensitive, headline-driven relief rally. While easing Middle East rhetoric has provided a temporary lifeline to risk assets, the underlying macroeconomic and geopolitical threats remain severe.