Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Are Lower Energy Prices Easing Inflation?

15 April 2026

Key Highlights

• U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) came in below market expectations

• Safe-haven demand continues to ease

• The U.S. Dollar Index remains on a downward trend

Market Review

U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, but the increase was significantly lower than expected despite rising energy costs driven by geopolitical tensions.

Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased only 0.1%, indicating weaker inflation momentum. Meanwhile, service sector inflation, a key focus for policymakers, remained flat.

Energy prices were the primary driver of the increase, with gasoline prices surging sharply. However, overall inflation pressures appear to be moderating as energy prices have recently pulled back following the ceasefire announcement.

Market reaction to the report was relatively muted, with stock futures slightly higher and Treasury yields largely unchanged.

Affected instruments:

• U.S. Dollar

• Gold

• S&P 500

Summary

As U.S. PPI data again came in significantly below expectations, market risk aversion has eased, pushing the U.S. Dollar Index back into a downward trend. In contrast, precious metals have regained upward momentum.

Today's Key Event

U.S. Manufacturing PMI

The market will closely monitor the upcoming U.S. Manufacturing PMI data. Historical trends suggest the U.S. economy may be slowing, and the market expects the figure to come in weaker than forecast.

Affected instruments:

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. stock indices

Trading Bias:

Bullish on Precious Metals

Market Sentiment

Fear & Greed Index: 47 (Neutral)

The index indicates that market risk sentiment continues to gradually ease as investors digest recent geopolitical developments. As safe-haven demand declines, the U.S. Dollar remains under pressure, while risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies show signs of recovery.

Technical Analysis – XAUUSD

Following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire, safe-haven demand has weakened, leading to lower U.S. Treasury yields and providing support for gold prices.

From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the 4844 resistance level and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term.

Key level to watch:

4790 support zone

Outlook:

Maintain bullish bias on gold