U.S.-Iran Talks Stall, Oil Prices Surge 8%

Market Overview

Last Friday, softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data briefly lifted market sentiment. However, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a historic low, and coupled with escalating uncertainties in the Middle East, U.S. equities showed divergence. The S&P 500 slipped 0.11% on the day but still posted its best weekly performance of the year.

Semiconductors remained the market‘s primary driver. NVIDIA and Broadcom continued to outperform, while Intel surged 24% for the week, marking its strongest weekly gain since 2000 and helping lift the Nasdaq. However, reports during Monday’s Asian session that U.S.-Iran negotiations had reached a deadlock reset geopolitical risk premiums, triggering renewed volatility across global markets.

■ Technology & Financials

Chip stocks continued to climb despite broader market fluctuations, with CoreWeave surging nearly 11% in a sharp rally. In contrast, sentiment toward financials remained cautious ahead of major bank earnings releases, with the sector broadly under pressure. Early Monday in Asia, U.S. equity index futures opened sharply lower by more than 1%, weighed down by geopolitical tensions.

■ Precious Metals & Commodities

Spot gold edged lower on Friday but still gained approximately 1.6% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly advance and a rebound of over 18% from its March lows. However, during Mondays Asian session, both gold and silver gapped down more than 2%, indicating partial repositioning of safe-haven flows amid the stalled negotiations.

In contrast, energy markets surged again. Crude oil futures jumped 8% at Monday‘s open, fully reversing last week’s profit-taking-driven losses.

■ Fixed Income & FX

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to around 4.32% on Friday, showing a volatile pattern of initial decline followed by a rebound over the week. The U.S. Dollar Index weakened significantly last week, falling 1.5%. However, supported by rising geopolitical risks, the index rebounded more than 0.4% during Mondays Asian session, reclaiming the 100 level.

Key Themes Ahead● U.S.-Iran Talks End Without Breakthrough

The highest-level formal diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran since 1979 ended without any substantive progress after 21 hours of negotiations. During the talks, military tensions escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, where a U.S. destroyer conducted a forced passage, prompting Iran to issue a “30-minute sinking” warning. Both sides ultimately de-escalated.

A former U.S. ambassador stated bluntly that the probability of reaching a meaningful agreement on core issues is “zero.”

● Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low

According to data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary April Consumer Sentiment Index dropped sharply to 47.6 from 53.3 in March, well below the expected 51.5. The survey period covered March 24 to April 7.

This reading came in below nearly all economist forecasts surveyed by media outlets, exceeding only one estimate.

Focus (GMT+8)

22:00 (ET) — U.S. March Existing Home Sales (Annualized, million units)