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    Bank of Canada Sees Lingering Weakness in Business Sentiment

    Abstract:Business sentiment in Canada improved over the summer but remains near historical lows as uncertainty around the path of the virus curbs demand and sales prospects, according to the Bank of Canada.

      Business sentiment in Canada improved over the summer but remains near historical lows as uncertainty around the path of the virus curbs demand and sales prospects, according to the Bank of Canada.

      The results from the autumn Business Outlook Survey show businesses report conditions have improved as warmer weather and lower Covid-19 case counts encouraged consumers to go out and buy goods and services. However, businesses are still worried about future demand and sales prospects with some economic restrictions still in place.

      调查的色调是与加拿大的银行认为完全恢复将是漫长和难以保持一致。被称为“再生”相位 - - 经济更迅速地在夏季于预期作为封闭措施被解除但恢复的第二阶段反弹。将是不均匀的和长期的

      情绪的复合计上升至-2.2在第三季度,从-6.9最后一季十年之低。而这就是一个实质性的改进,读数仍然第二低自2016。

      虽然在调查完成最近的经济条件已经改变,因为Covid-19案件迅速上升,尤其是在该国两个最大的省份。安大略省和魁北克重新对最近几周一些商家和活动的遏制措施,在应对第二波将继续需求盖子和阻碍整个秋季和冬季的经济活动。

      更亮点:

      恢复仍然不平衡ACRO我国产业:公司中有三分之一的销售额大多不受影响或COVID-19正面影响;公司的第二第三指示销量已经完全恢复或将在未来12个月内恢复;最后三分之一或者期望他们的销售不会返回至少12个月或不确定时的销售将全面反弹

      商家表示说销量不会通常与旅游及相关行业在一年内收回,其中物理疏远难

      同时,企业联房地产,基础设施和自然资源已经基本上回收的或看到自己一年内回收

      能力限制似乎是回到历史平均值,但央行说面临限制大多数公司将它们看作临时或不具有广泛基础

      尽管在容量计反弹,BOC的结论是:结果容量和劳动压力表明经济继续产能过剩和劳动力懈怠,虽然这些都因为

      投资意向从一季度好转,但依然疲软夏季调查缩小 - 下面histor的iCal平均值

      就业意图也反弹,尽管它们保持稍低于历史平均。它的不平坦的趋势。 “几乎三分之一的企业 - 通常是那些依赖于旅游业或面临需求疲软 - 希望他们的员工水平之前大流行保持低于至少在未来12个月或从不完全恢复”

      工资增长预计将放缓,调查发现

      企业预期输入价格在稍微更快的速度在接下来的12个月中,通过在商品价格的增加,难度采购输入,或更高的操作成本由于健康指南

      企业具有稍高的通货膨胀预期,与企业期望充气以上3%

      {6}

      “Firms reported their sales prospects are limited by weak demand and precautionary health guidelines, and that their investment and hiring plans remain Modest due to elevated uncertainty,” the central bank said in the survey, which took place between Aug. 24 and Sept. 16.

      {6}

      {8}

      The tone of the survey is consistent with the Bank of Canadas view that a full recovery will be long and difficult. The economy rebounded more quickly than expected in the summer as containment measures were lifted but the second phase of the recovery -- known as the “recuperation” phase -- will be uneven and protracted.

      {8}

      {10}

      The composite gauge of sentiment rose to -2.2 in the third quarter, from a decade-low of -6.9 last quarter. While thats a substantial improvement, the reading is still the second-lowest since 2016.

      {10}

      {12}

      Although the survey was completed recently, economic conditions have changed as Covid-19 cases rapidly rose, particularly in the countrys two largest provinces. Ontario and Quebec reimposed containment measures on some businesses and activity in recent weeks in response to the second wave which will keep a lid on demand and hamper economic activity through the fall and winter.

      {12}{13}

      More Highlights:

      {13}{14}

    •   Recovery remains uneven across industries: One third of firms reported sales were mostly unaffected or positively affected by COVID‑19; a second third of firms indicated sales have already fully recovered or will recover within the next 12 months; final third either expect their sales wont return for at least 12 months or are unsure when sales will fully rebound

        {14}{15}

    •   Businesses that say sales wont recover within a year typically linked to tourism and related industries where physical distancing is difficult

        {15}{16}

    •   Meanwhile, businesses linked to real estate, infrastructure and natural resources have largely recovered or see themselves recovering within a year

        {16}{17}

    •   Capacity constraints appear to be back to historical averages, but the central bank says most firms facing constraints see them as temporary or not broad-based

        {17}{18}

    •   Despite the rebound in the capacity gauge, BOC concludes: “Results for capacity and labor pressures suggest that the economy continues to have excess capacity and labor slack, although these have narrowed since the summer survey”

        {18}{19}

    •   Investment intentions improved from previous quarter, but remain weak -- below historical averages

        {19}{20}

    •   Employment intentions have also rebounded, though they remain slightly below historical averages. Its an uneven trend. “Almost one-third of businesses -- generally those that are dependent on tourism or facing weak demand -- expect their workforce levels to remain lower than before the pandemic for at least the next 12 months or to never fully return”

        {20}{21}

    •   Wage growth is expected to slow, the survey found

        {21}{22}

    •   Firms expect input prices to grow at a slightly faster pace over the next 12 months, driven by increases in commodity prices, difficulty sourcing inputs, or higher operating costs due to health guidelines

        {22}{777}

    •   Businesses have slightly higher inflation expectations, with 11% of firms expecting inflation above 3%

        {777}{24}

      — With assistance by Erik Hertzberg

      {24}

      (Updates with investment intentions in bullet section)

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