NZDCHF: Bearish Now, But Is Smart Money Preparing the Reversal？

NZD/CHF Long 12 hours ago 1 Grab this chart Grab this chart 3 3 24 NZDCHF is currently trading around 0.4710, and my short-term view remains bearish. As long as price remains below 0.4750–0.4760, I see room for another bearish leg. A clean break below 0.4700 followed by a weak retest could expose 0.4665 and 0.4630, bringing price directly into the Weekly Demand Zone highlighted on my chart. The latest COT data shows a clear divergence between NZD and CHF positioning. NZD Non-Commercial traders are now net long +6.2K contracts, with an impressive +14.8K increase in long positions in the latest report. CHF positioning tells the opposite story: Non-Commercials are approximately net short -30K contracts, while longs decreased and shorts increased further. In other words, speculative positioning is increasingly supporting NZD strength relative to CHF, even though price action has not reflected it yet. Seasonality provides another interesting confirmation. September has historically been weak for both currencies, but across the different historical windows I analyzed, CHF tends to underperform NZD. This creates a relative seasonal advantage for NZDCHF. Retail sentiment, however, still supports my short-term bearish scenario. Around 56% of retail traders are currently long, with their average long entry significantly above current prices. I therefore wouldn't be surprised to see another move lower, potentially taking liquidity below 0.4700 before a more important reaction develops. My approach is therefore quite simple: I am bearish in the short term, but I don't want to chase the downside. I want to see whether price can reach 0.4630–0.4665. Once inside this Weekly Demand, I'll start looking for bullish confirmation on lower timeframes. If a bullish structural shift develops there, I would have Weekly Demand, bullish NZD positioning, bearish CHF positioning and favorable relative seasonality all pointing in the same direction. That would make the potential reversal far more interesting than buying NZDCHF at current prices. EdgeTradingJourney Follow Following 📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis. Also on : Chart Patterns COT fed Fundamental Analysis ict NZDCHF opec signals strategy Trend Analysis XAUUSD Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use . Chart Patterns COT fed Fundamental Analysis ict NZDCHF opec signals strategy Trend Analysis XAUUSD EdgeTradingJourney Follow Following 📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis. Also on : Disclaimer The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use .