ETO Markets Global Pulse: Oil Crashes 10.76%, WTI Hits 81.80

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on July 27 (Monday), WTI crude fell sharply and closed at USD 81.91 per barrel, down 9.46% on the day. Brent crude dropped 10.76% to USD 87.79 per barrel. Both benchmarks hit their lowest levels since mid-July.

The sell-off came after Trump unexpectedly paused US airstrikes on Iran and said both sides were holding “good talks” with a deal possible. Market expectations for diplomatic easing and a recovery in Strait of Hormuz shipping strengthened.

On July 28 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, WTI crude fell another 1% and traded near USD 81.80 per barrel. The short-term structure remains weak.

Global Headlines

Netanyahu Heads To Meet Trump

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived at Andrews Air Force Base in the US on July 27 and traveled to Washington. He is scheduled to meet Trump at the White House on July 28 and attend the memorial service for US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham.

Israel Cites Gaoshan Nuclear Activity

Sources said Netanyahu is expected to provide Trump with intelligence showing that Iran is expanding nuclear facility construction at “Gaoshan.” Israel also claims Tehran has not been honest in peace talks and is rebuilding missile and drone programs damaged by previous US airstrikes.

Trump Warns Strikes Could Resume

Trump said he decided to pause US strikes on Iran to give negotiations another chance. He said the US is holding deep talks with Iran. If talks fail, the US will resume “very powerful military action.” He added that diplomacy has limited time to succeed.

Trump Wants Lowest US Rates

Trump said FED Chair Warsh is doing well but still needs to manage internal issues at the committee. He said he believes Warsh will do the right thing and argued that US interest rates should be lower, even the lowest in the world. He also said costs are falling quickly.

Morgan Stanley Sees Dollar Longs

Morgan Stanley strategists said investors increased long-dollar and short-pound positions ahead of this weeks FED and Bank of England policy meetings. Options pricing showed more demand for long US Dollar Index positions and short sterling trades.

Citadel Sees Surprise FED Hike

Citadel Securities said the FED may raise rates this week. The firm said a 25bps hike would strengthen Warshs anti-inflation credibility and show policymakers no longer rely on advance policy signaling. It added that markets may be underpricing a hawkish shift.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)

WTI crude is trading around the 81.70 level, while the short-term structure remains weak. If prices continue to face resistance near 81.70, the market will watch the 78.50 area. A clear break below 78.50 could open the way toward 76.50.

If WTI breaks back above 81.70 and holds there, short-term downside pressure may ease. Upside could then test 83.50 and potentially extend toward 85.50.

The technical structure still identifies 78.50 as an important short-term support level. A break below this level may trigger a deeper move toward 76.50.

The market continues to reprice US-Iran negotiation progress, the outlook for US military action against Iran, Strait of Hormuz shipping expectations, and FED policy signals. Traders should carefully assess market timing and risk exposure.

Disclaimer

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