Geopolitical risks and Fed hawkishness drove USD swings; gold rebounded; US oil rose >2%.

Last Friday, the postponement of travel to Switzerland by the United States, Iran, and Pakistan sparked concerns in the market about the prospects of negotiations, with the situation in Lebanon becoming a central focus. At the same time, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The US dollar index first rose and then fell, breaking through 101 during trading, reaching its highest level since May 2025. It then continued to give up its gains and ultimately closed down 0.078% at 100.75. The gold market in June is undergoing its most severe test since the start of the bull market in 2022. As of the week ending June 19th, spot gold closed at $4155.44 per ounce, a weekly decline of approximately 1.46%, marking the third consecutive week of decline. Since reaching a historical high of approximately $5600 per ounce on January 29th, the cumulative retracement of gold prices has exceeded 26%. Behind this downward trend is the resonance of three forces: the Federal Reserve's policy shift, geopolitical alienation, and negative feedback from the funding side. On Monday (June 22) morning trading in the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading around $4160 per ounce. Due to the ongoing uncertainty in efforts to transform the temporary agreement between the United States and Iran into a lasting peace solution, international crude oil has rebounded slightly. Affected by rumors of Israel and Hezbollah agreeing to a ceasefire, WTI crude oil fell briefly, but rebounded after continuous Israeli drone strikes in southern Lebanon, ultimately closing up 1.34% at $76.43 per barrel; Brent crude oil ultimately closed up 0.99% at $79.94 per barrel.