Trump said "war's over," US dollar dropped, gold's volatility continues, but bull market trend holds

On Monday, the US dollar index fluctuated downwards and fell sharply after Trump claimed that he believed the war against Iran had basically ended, ultimately closing down 0.16% at 98.73; The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.100%, while the 2-year Treasury yield sensitive to the Federal Reserve policy rate closed at 3.550%. Although international oil prices rose nearly 30% on Monday (March 9th), spot gold plummeted nearly 3% from its high. Despite subsequent fluctuations, it closed at $5136 per ounce, a drop of about 0.67%. On the surface, this seems to contradict the classic logic of "buying gold in troubled times". However, upon closer analysis of the current geopolitical, economic data, and monetary policy intertwining, it can be found that the short-term correction of gold actually hides a deeper structural logic, and the potential for a medium-term rebound may far exceed market expectations. Due to the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, supply in the Middle East has been restricted and some major Middle Eastern oil producing countries have reduced production, resulting in a surge in the opening prices of the two oil companies. WTI crude oil rose by 30% at one point, reaching a high of $119.5 per barrel. However, there were later reports that G7 countries were discussing the release of strategic oil reserves, and crude oil basically gave up all its gains during the day. As Trump hinted during the US trading session that the war had basically ended, WTI crude oil fell to $81.7 per barrel, a drop of 11%, with a intraday amplitude of up to 40%. Finally, it closed down 6.85% at $85.15 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 4.93% at $86.23 per barrel.