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    EURUSD Monthly Open Range in Focus Ahead of Germany GDP Report

    Abstract:Germanys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may spark a bullish reaction in EUR/USD as the updates are anticipated to show a pickup in economic activity.

      Trading the News: Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

      交易新闻:德国国内生产总值(GDP)

      Fresh data prints coming out of the euro-area may trigger a bullish reaction in EUR/USD as updates to Germanys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report are anticipated to show a pickup in economic activity.

      欧元区出现的新数据可能引发欧元兑美元的看涨反应预计德国国内生产总值(GDP)报告的更新将显示经济活动有所回升。

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      Europe‘s largest economy is expected to grow 0.4% after holding flat during the last three-months of 2018, and a positive development may encourage the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt an improved outlook for the monetary union as the ’new series of TLTROs that we announced in March, will help to safeguard favourable bank lending conditions and will continue to support access to financing, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises.

      预计欧洲最大的经济体在2018年的最后三个月持平后增长0.4%,积极的发展可能会鼓励欧洲央行(ECB)采取改善的货币联盟前景作为我们在3月宣布的新一系列TLTROs ,将有助于保障有利的银行贷款条件,并将继续支持融资渠道,特别是对中小企业而言。

      In turn, the Governing Council may largely endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on June 6, and more of the same from President Mario Draghi & Co. may help to heighten the appeal of the Euro as the central bank shows little to no interest in conducting another round of quantitative easing (QE).

      反过来,理事会可能会在很大程度上结束在6月6日的下一次会议上采取观望态度,而总统马里奥·德拉吉公司的更多相同可能有助于提高欧元的吸引力,因为央行几乎没有兴趣进行另一轮谈判量化宽松政策(QE)。

      However, a dismal GDP report may drag on EUR/USD as it raises the risk for a euro-area recession, and the ECB may come under pressure to further support the monetary union as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability.

      然而,令人沮丧的GDP报告可能拖累欧元/美元,因为它增加了欧元区经济衰退的风险,欧洲央行可能会受到影响随着中央银行努力实现其唯一的价格稳定授权,进一步支持货币联盟的压力。

      Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

      注册并加入DailyFX货币策略师David Song LIVE获取机会讨论围绕外汇市场的关键主题和潜在的交易设置。

      Impact that Germanys GDP report had on EUR/USD during the previous release

      德国GDP报告对上一版本中欧元/美元的影响

    Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) Pips Change (End of Day post event)
    4Q P 2018 02/14/2019 07:00:00 GMT 0.1% 0.0% -5 +17

      4Q 2018 Germany Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

      Period 数据已发布 估算 实际 点数变化(1小时后发布事件) 点数变化(结束日后事件 4Q P 2018 02/14/2019 07:00:00 GMT 0.1% 0.0% -5 +17 2018年第4季德国国内生产总值(GDP)

      EUR/USD 10-Minute Chart

      欧元/美元10分钟图表

    Image

      Economic activity in Germany was flat during the last three-months of 2018, with the Europes largest economy barely skirting a recession following the 0.2% contraction in the third-quarter of the year. The details of the report showed Private Consumption adding 0.1% to the GDP reading, with government spending contributing 0.3%, while inventories narrowed 0.6% in the fourth-quarter.

      德国经济活动持平2018年的最后三个月,欧洲最大的经济体在今年第三季度萎缩0.2%之后几乎没有走出衰退。该报告的详细信息显示私人消费增加0.1%的GDP数据,政府支出占0.3%,而第四季度库存收窄0.6%。

      The mixed data prints sparked a limited reaction in the Euro, with EUR/USD consolidating throughout the day to close at 1.1294. Learn more with the DailyFX Advanced Guide for Trading the News.

      混合数据印刷品引发了欧元的有限反应,欧元/美元全天盘整,收于1.1294。使用DailyFX高级交易指南了解更多信息。

      EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

      欧元兑美元汇率每日图表

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    •   The broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the bearish formations from earlier this year, with the near-term outlook mired by the failed attempt to push back above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion).

        由于价格和相对强弱指数(RSI)继续跟踪早期的看跌形态,欧元兑美元的更广阔前景仍然向下倾斜今年短期前景因未能成功回落至斐波纳契重叠1.1270(扩张50%)至1.1290(扩大61.8%)而陷入短期前景。

    •   Will keep a close eye on the monthly opening range, with lack of momentum to hold above the 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) region raising the risk for a move towards 1.1140 (78.6% expansion).

        将密切关注月度开盘区间,缺乏动力以保持在1.1190(38.2%的回撤位)上方至1.1220(78.6%回撤位)区域上升至1.1140(78.6%)的风险扩展)。

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      Additional Trading Resources

      其他交易资源

      --- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

      ---由货币策略师David Song撰写

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