Abstract:October's 1.7% fall means that in the last year output has fallen 5.7% — the steepest year-on-year decline since 2009.
Germany's factory recession looks like it's getting worse as output fell 1.7% in October according to official data. That follows a 0.6% drop in September. The fall means that output in the last year has fallen 5.7% since October 2018 which is “the steepest year-on-year decline since 2009.” Capital Economics economist Andre Kenningham said for Germany, the weakness industry “may be getting worse,” and that in the coming quarters a “recession is still more likely than not.”View Business Insider's homepage for more stories.Germany's factory recession looks like it's getting worse as output fell 1.7% in October, according to official data. That follows a 0.6% drop in September. According to Capital Economics, the fall means that output in the last year has fallen 5.7% since October 2018 — which it says is “the steepest year-on-year decline since 2009.” “The sharp decline in production in October suggests that, far from bottoming out, Germany's industrial recession may be getting worse,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics, in an email to clients. Kenningham added that the fall was led by capital goods weakness, which fell 4.4% month on month. “There is nothing in the recent surveys to suggest that things are turning around. The manufacturing component of the Ifo Business Climate Index edged down in November and was consistent with industrial output declining by 5% y/y,” Kenningham said adding, “although Germany's Manufacturing PMI rose, it was still at an exceptionally low level.”Kenningham warned that despite Germany narrowly avoiding recession in the third quarter, Capital Economics feel that “recession is still more likely than not in the coming quarters.”
Capital Economics/Refinitiv
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
The Sum Of All Fears
The IMF projects that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020, followed by a 5.2% rebound in 2021, supporting a V-shaped recovery.
According to the latest data of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's forex reserves have surged $11,938 million to a fresh all-time high of $534,568 million for the week ended July 31.
"This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words," said Fed Chair Jerome Powell.