No US-Iran Talks in Sight; Markets Brace for Jackson Hole

Market Wrap: Oil Rises on Iran Standoff, Jackson Hole in Focus

Oil and the dollar extended their gains as attention swung back to the Middle East. Washington confirmed that no talks with Iran are currently underway despite diplomatic efforts from other nations — a signal that uncertainty around regional oil supplies is likely to persist, and one the White House delivered without softening. The message was that negotiations will not resume until the president sees a credible willingness from Tehran to engage meaningfully, and that threshold has not yet been met.

Brent and WTI both pushed higher on the news. The dollar traded without clear direction as geopolitical anxiety kept sentiment mixed, though a stronger-than-expected US labour print helped put a floor under it. Gold managed only a modest gain, held back by dollar resilience even as safe-haven demand persisted in the background.

Wall Street told a very different story. Nvidia's blowout earnings powered the strongest tech session in weeks, with the Nasdaq leading and the broader indices following. The chipmaker's guidance for next-year revenue growth ran well ahead of consensus, sparking a broad semiconductor rally that lifted the S&P 500 and Dow alongside it. It's a reminder that even as macro anxiety builds, single-name earnings power in mega-cap tech can still drive the tape on its own.

DXY

The dollar is caught between two forces: hawkish supply-side pressure from oil and softer labour-market signals underneath. The tug-of-war has left it directionless, and that's likely to persist until Warsh gives markets something concrete to trade against.

Gold

Gold is doing what it usually does when geopolitics escalates — building a bid — but is being capped by a firm dollar. The setup is constructive medium-term, but near-term direction is a function of what Jackson Hole delivers and how the labour market data prints.

WTI

Oil is the cleanest expression of the current news cycle. With no diplomatic channel active and Washington signalling patience rather than urgency, the geopolitical risk premium has room to build further. Structurally low US strategic reserves continue to sit under the market as a supporting factor.

Nasdaq

Tech leadership is back on the front foot, powered by Nvidia's guidance and a broad semiconductor rally. The read-through is that earnings momentum in mega-cap AI names remains sufficient to override macro headwinds when it's this strong. Whether that resilience survives a hawkish Warsh is the question this week.

Focus: Jackson Hole

The event of the week is Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole address as Chair. Markets are watching for two specific signals: the path back to the Fed's inflation target, and — perhaps more importantly — the role of the bond market in that strategy. The latter is unusual to see flagged so explicitly, and it hints that balance sheet policy may feature more prominently in the framework Warsh lays out than it did under his predecessor.

Alongside the speech, the annual revision of the non-farm payrolls report and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading will shape sentiment into the weekend.

The Takeaway

Two live narratives are running in parallel: Iran-driven supply anxiety pushing oil and the dollar, and mega-cap tech earnings power keeping equities aloft. Jackson Hole is the pivot that could resolve which one dominates going into next week. Position accordingly.