Nigeria's inflation falls to 15.43% as CBN tightening bites

Nigeria's headline inflation eased to 15.43% in July 2026, and economist Dr Justin Amase attributes the decline to the Central Bank of Nigeria's tight monetary policy, relative exchange-rate stability and gradually easing supply-chain bottlenecks.

Amase, managing director and chief executive of Macrostrat Nigeria Limited, said the July figures showed headline and core inflation moderating while food inflation moved in the opposite direction and rose. His remarks were reported by Arise News in an article by Favour Odima published around 19 August 2026.

Contents

01

What the July data show

02

Why the headline rate fell

03

The food inflation challenge

04

Calls for coordinated policy

What the July data show

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation fell to 15.43% in July 2026 from 15.91% in June, a 0.48 percentage-point reduction year-on-year and well below the 24.94% recorded in July 2025.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, declined to 14.97% year-on-year in July, and on a month-on-month basis fell to 0.15% from 1.66% in June.

Food inflation, however, rose to 20.31% year-on-year in July, with its month-on-month rate jumping sharply to 5.56% from 3.75% in June, moving against the headline decline.

Why the headline rate fell

Amase credited the CBN's aggressive monetary tightening, which has lifted the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.5%, for discouraging lending and borrowing and limiting liquidity in Nigeria's financial system.

He also pointed to the relative stability of the exchange rate, which he said kept import prices at virtually the same level for some time, helping to curb inflation.

The food inflation challenge

Amase said food inflation is driven mainly by structural factors, including the off-season period, logistics bottlenecks, high input costs, poor rural access roads, insecurity, post-harvest losses of up to 40% of farm produce, and flooding.

Describing himself as a part-time farmer, he said he suspended farming this year because production costs exceeded returns, citing high costs of fertilizer, herbicides and labour.

Calls for coordinated policy

Amase called for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to tackle food inflation, prioritizing reduced input and transportation costs, improved irrigation, addressing insecurity and incentivizing private investment in large-scale farming.

The moderation in headline inflation may strengthen calls for a reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate when the CBN's Monetary Policy Committee meets in September 2026, though the accelerating monthly food inflation complicates that decision.