DBG Markets: Market Report for August 14, 2026

Soft US PPI Reinforces Fed Hold Bets; Equities Surge, Dollar Suppressed

US Dollar, GBPUSD, Gold & Nasdaq100 Analysis

Global financial markets traded with strong bullish sentiment heading into Friday following a second consecutive inflation surprise.

Coming right after Wednesday's tame CPI, a softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its September FOMC meeting.

Wholesale Inflation Continues Disinflationary Trend

Following the cooling in consumer prices, US PPI data confirmed that pipeline cost pressures are continuing to abate at the wholesale level:

· Headline PPI: July headline PPI was flat at 0.0% MoM (versus +0.2% expected), while the annual rate fell sharply to 4.7% YoY (versus 4.9% expected and 5.5% in June).

· Core PPI: July core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM and slowed to 4.2% YoY, down from 4.7% in June.

Technical Analysis & Major Asset OutlookUS Dollar Index: Bearish Continuation Intact Under 100.00

The US Dollar Index remains locked in a weak consolidation posture beneath its 100.00 psychological milestone. With Fed rate-hike bets continuously unwinding, the path of least resistance points toward further downside.

USD Index, H4 Chart

The greenback continues to trade below its broken structural support at the key 100.00 psychological mark, making any short-term rebound highly vulnerable to selling pressure.

Outlook: Maintain a "sell-on-rally" stance as long as price action remains capped below 100.00. Immediate downside support rests at 99.50, with a breakdown opening the door toward 99.00.

*Watch for more dollar pair analysis on our yesterday market commentary (covering EUR/USD and AUD/USD setups).

GBP/USD: Eyeing Retest of 1.3500 Resistance

In tandem with broad US Dollar weakness, GBP/USD maintains its firm bullish trajectory. However, a technical check remains crucial as the pair approaches the 1.3500 resistance level.

GBPUSD, H4 Chart

The pair is consolidating constructively above its short-term moving averages after the recent pullback, but the key focus remains on whether GBP/USD can cleanly reclaim the major 1.3500 psychological handle—a level that failed to hold well in past rallies.

GBPUSD, H2 Chart

If GBP/USD can regain and hold above 1.3500, it will open the door for further bullish continuation given the persistent pressure on the greenback.

Conversely, if price action breaks down on a retest failure, watch 1.3430 as the next major structural support area.

Spot Gold: Short-Term "Sell-the-News" Pullback Within Bullish Trend

While easing rate expectations and dollar weakness provide a strong macro backdrop for gold, spot prices experienced a minor pullback as traders engaged in profit-taking and technical position adjustments ("sell the news").

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

The overarching macro narrative remains highly supportive of bullion. However, after recent parabolic moves, intraday price action indicates a temporary technical correction.

XAUUSD, H1 Chart

Until such signals emerge, intraday moves today will likely remain cautiously bearish in the short term.

Nasdaq 100 (UT100): Reclaims 30,000 Milestone

Tech-heavy equities benefited directly from lower Treasury yields and retreating rate-hike odds, driving the Nasdaq 100 back above key structural levels. Currently, both technical and fundamental outlooks continue to align favorably for tech benchmarks.

UT100, H4 Chart

Technically, the Nasdaq 100 successfully reclaimed the 30,000 psychological milestone, signaling a continuation of its broader risk-on rally. Intraday traders should track the prevailing H4 uptrend.

As long as price action holds above the 30,000 handle on pullbacks, the path is cleared for further upside extension toward its previous record high levels.

Bottom Line & Asset Summary

Back-to-back dovish CPI and PPI prints pushed CME FedWatch September rate-hold odds up to 65%, keeping risk sentiment elevated into the weekly close. The US Dollar remains suppressed beneath 100.00 resistance, GBP/USD tests key resistance at 1.3500, Gold navigates an intraday profit-taking pullback above $4,250 – $4,300 demand, and the Nasdaq 100 holds above 30,000 to extend its risk-on rally.

· US Dollar Index: Bearish Continuation; "sell-on-rally" strategy favored beneath 100.00 overhead resistance, targeting 99.50 and 99.00 support.

· GBP/USD: Testing Key Resistance; consolidating under 1.3500 handle, with 1.3430 serving as crucial pullback support if 1.3500 holds overhead.

· Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Cautiously Bearish Intraday / Buy-on-Dip Overall; short-term "sell-the-news" pullback active, watching lower timeframes for reversal signals around $4,250 – $4,300 primary support.

· Nasdaq 100 (UT100): Bullish Expansion; reclaimed 30,000 milestone, following the prevailing H4 uptrend toward potential record highs.