GBP/USD Outlook Ahead of Rate Decision: Critical Support & Resistance to Watch

Bullish momentum has dominated GBP/USD since the beginning of July, driving the pair to a July high above 1.35200.

GBP/USD Hourly chart analysis

On the 1-hour chart, GBP/USD is consolidating in a neutral-to-bearish posture around 1.34285 after failing to sustain a bounce past the 1.3450–1.3460 resistance zone, while the RSI at 42.69 reflects waning bullish momentum below its 50 centerline. A hourly breakdown below 1.3428 signals potential weakness toward the 1.3400 psychological support floor, whereas buyers must push price cleanly above 1.3450 to reopen a move toward major overhead resistance at 1.3570.

Hourly Chart

Applying

the High-to-Low Weekly Volatility distribution to Monday's open of 1.34450, the

historical average range of 1.92% projects an expected weekly volatility

expansion band between 1.31869 on the downside and 1.37031 on the upside.

Statistical probability indicates a 71.65% chance that total price movement

remains within 2.18% of Monday's open (ranging from 1.31520 to 1.37380), with

the single most frequent weekly range spanning between 1.31% and 1.74%.