Harmovest Capital | Daily Market Insight: Will Weak NFP Data Push Gold Higher?

08/05/2026 | Market Highlights

Key Takeaways

• US-Iran tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz

• Market risk sentiment shows signs of fluctuation

• Gold maintains a short-term bullish bias

Market Recap

The US and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying market concerns over rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes, geopolitical uncertainty has revived safe-haven demand, bringing renewed attention to the US dollar and gold.

At the same time, markets continue to monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. With both safe-haven demand and higher-rate expectations remaining in play, gold continues to trade with a bullish tone in the short term, while US equities experience increased volatility.

Today's Focus

• Canada Employment Data

• US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)

Markets will closely watch the US Nonfarm Payrolls report to further assess the strength of the US economy and labor market. A weaker reading could influence expectations surrounding future Federal Reserve policy and drive volatility across the US dollar, gold, and US equity markets.

Market Sentiment Analysis

The Fear & Greed Index remains at elevated levels, suggesting overall market risk appetite still holds firm. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has triggered a temporary return of safe-haven flows into assets such as gold.

Technical Analysis | XAUUSD

Gold has strengthened after breaking above the key 4734 resistance zone and moving above the EMA89 and EMA144 levels, signaling improving bullish momentum. As long as prices remain supported above the 4684 region, gold is likely to maintain a bullish consolidation trend in the near term.