logo |

News

    Home   >     Original    >     Main body

    Goldman Sachs raises probability of U.S. recession in 2023 to 30%

    Abstract:Goldman Sachs sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%
    2022-06-21T094135Z_1_LYNXMPEI5K0CN_RTROPTP_3_USA-STOCKS-BEAR-RECESSION.jpg

      Goldman Sachs sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, amid record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

      The latest forecast comes about a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 to stem a surge in inflation and as several other central banks also took aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy.

      Goldman Sachs also downgraded its U.S. GDP estimates below consensus for the next two years to reflect the drag on the economy.

      “The Fed has front-loaded rate hikes more aggressively, terminal rate expectations have risen, and financial conditions have tightened further and now imply a substantially larger drag on growth -- somewhat more than we think is necessary,” Goldman's economists said in a note from late-Monday.

      Goldman Sachs forecast a 25% conditional probability of the United States entering a recession in 2024 if it avoids one in 2023, adding that this meant that there was a 48% cumulative probability of a recession over the next two years compared to its prior forecast of 35%.

      “We are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply.” it added. For more forex news, please download WikiFX - the Global Dealer Regulatory Inquiry APP.

    Read more

    United States Dollar

    • United Arab Emirates Dirham
    • Australia Dollar
    • Canadian Dollar
    • Swiss Franc
    • Chinese Yuan
    • Danish Krone
    • Euro
    • British Pound
    • Hong Kong Dollar
    • Hungarian Forint
    • Japanese Yen
    • South Korean Won
    • Mexican Peso
    • Malaysian Ringgit
    • Norwegian Krone
    • New Zealand Dollar
    • Polish Zloty
    • Russian Ruble
    • Saudi Arabian Riyal
    • Swedish Krona
    • Singapore Dollar
    • Thai Baht
    • Turkish Lira
    • United States Dollar
    • South African Rand

    United States Dollar

    • United Arab Emirates Dirham
    • Australia Dollar
    • Canadian Dollar
    • Swiss Franc
    • Chinese Yuan
    • Danish Krone
    • Euro
    • British Pound
    • Hong Kong Dollar
    • Hungarian Forint
    • Japanese Yen
    • South Korean Won
    • Mexican Peso
    • Malaysian Ringgit
    • Norwegian Krone
    • New Zealand Dollar
    • Polish Zloty
    • Russian Ruble
    • Saudi Arabian Riyal
    • Swedish Krona
    • Singapore Dollar
    • Thai Baht
    • Turkish Lira
    • United States Dollar
    • South African Rand
    Current Rate  :
    --
    Amount
    United States Dollar
    Available
    -- United States Dollar
    Risk Warning

    The Database of WikiFX comes from the official regulatory authorities , such as the FCA, ASIC, etc. The published content is also based on fairness, objectivity and fact. WikiFX doesn't ask for PR fees, advertising fees, ranking fees, data cleaning fees and other illogical fees. WikiFX will do its utmost to maintain the consistency and synchronization of database with authoritative data sources such as regulatory authorities, but does not guarantee the data to be up to date consistently.

    Given the complexity of forex industry, some brokers are issued legal licenses by cheating regulation institutes. If the data published by WikiFX are not in accordance with the fact, please click 'Complaints 'and 'Correction' to inform us. We will check immediately and release the results.

    Foreign exchange, precious metals and over-the-counter (OTC) contracts are leveraged products, which have high risks and may lead to losses of your investment principal. Please invest rationally.

    Special Note, the content of the Wikifx site is for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The Forex broker is chosen by the client. The client understands and takes into account all risks arising with Forex trading is not relevant with WikiFX, the client should bear full responsibility for their consequences.