Abstract:JCER Senior Researcher Jun Saito recently commented that the global epidemic may be the final blow on Japan’s sluggish economy, while Goldman Sachs estimated Japan’s economy may see a record 25% shrinkage this quarter.
JCER Senior Researcher Jun Saito recently commented that the global epidemic may be the final blow on Japan’s sluggish economy, while Goldman Sachs estimated Japan’s economy may see a record 25% shrinkage this quarter.
Jun Saito repeated the point that Japan is heading towards a severe recession, attributing it to the shocks on demand and supply. In addition, the delaying of Olympics and Paralympics will “put more downward pressure” on Japan’s economy.
According to the estimation of Goldman Sachs, Japan’s economy will shrink an unprecedented 25% this quarter despite a stimulus scheme never seen in history. While coronavirus outbreak in the US and some European economies is easing, this may not be a very good news for the safe-haven yen, which has benefited from the continuous global economic slump in March. Now that the market expects a peak of global coronavirus cases, risk aversion sentiment is eventually thinning, which will definitely weigh on the yen.
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The IMF projects that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020, followed by a 5.2% rebound in 2021, supporting a V-shaped recovery.
According to the latest data of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's forex reserves have surged $11,938 million to a fresh all-time high of $534,568 million for the week ended July 31.
"This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words," said Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
"If the current rate of decline continues, claims will dip below 1M in the second or—more likely—third week of June," said economist Ian Shepherdson.