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    Gold consolidates the heaviest daily fall in six weeks.

    Abstract:Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebound remains elusive below $1,786, US data, Fed in focus
    XAU_USD_17092021-637674397459519059.png

      Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebound remains elusive below $1,786, US data, Fed in focus

      Gold consolidates the heaviest daily fall in six weeks.

      Chatters over US stimulus, Fed tapering trigger corrective pullback amid a quiet session.

      US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index eyed for intraday direction, FOMC is the key.

      Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD weakness likely to persist until FOMC meeting

      Gold picks up bids to refresh intraday high around $1,758, up 0.20% on a day, licking its wounds during early Friday.

      The precious metal dropped the most since August 06 the previous day on escalated chatters over the Feds tapering during the next week. The bets for consolidating easy-money policies of the US central bank gained momentum after the US Retail Sales for August and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for September came in better than expected and prior. That said, The US Retail Sales MoM jumped to the highest in five months while crossing expectations of -0.8% with +0.7% figures. Further, the Philly Fed gauge also rose strongly to 30.7 versus 19 forecast and 19.4 prior, marking the strongest figures in three months.

      It should, however, be noted that Reuters‘ latest poll of 51 economists pushes back the tapering to the November meeting while citing the inflation concerns. The survey also hints at the Delta covid variant’s downbeat impact on the US Q3 GDP.

      Read: Reuters Poll: Delta darkens US Q3 growth views, Fed taper announcement expected in November

      In addition to the recently easing taper tantrums, a tweet from Fox News's Chad Pergram also helps the commodity to rebound. “WH says Biden, Pelosi & Schumer talked today by phone about social spending bill,” tweeted the reporter. Before that, Axios came out with the news saying, “President Biden failed to persuade Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to agree to spending $3.5 trillion on the Democrats' budget reconciliation package during their Oval Office meeting on Wednesday.”

      On the contrary, the risk-off mood backed by were chatters that the US, the UK and Australia are indirectly challenging China with securities pact and the US hosting of the UK, India, Australia and Japan for diplomatic talks the next week. Additionally, the Sino-American tussles, recently over Taiwan, join the hurricanes that challenge oil firms in the US Gulf to add to the risk-off mood and favor the US dollars safe-haven demand. As per the latest updates, the US and Australia issue joint statement showing concerns over the South China Sea claims while conveying readiness to strengthen ties with Taiwan.

      Looking forward, headlines relating to the US stimulus, Fed and covid, not to forget China, may entertain gold traders, likely extending the corrective pullback. However, the preliminary reading of the September month US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September, expected 72.2 versus 70 prior, will be the key data to follow today that could help better forecast next weeks Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) moves.

      Technical analysis

      Gold prices bounce off a 2.5-month-old broad horizontal support area but keep the previous days downside break of an ascending trend line support, now resistance.

      With the bearish MACD signals and sustained trading below the key moving averages joining Thursdays support break, gold bears remain in control unless the quote bounces back beyond the support-turned-resistance near $1,786.

      Even so, 50-DMA and 200-DMA, respectively around $1,796 and $1,808, challenges the buyers before directing them to the key horizontal hurdle around $1,834.

      Meanwhile, gold sellers may wait for a downside break of $1,750 to take fresh entries targeting $1,738. Following that, $1,717 and the $1,700 may entertain the bears before the yearly bottom near $1,687.

      Overall, gold prices portray short-covering moves that are insufficient to recall the metal buyers.

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