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    The Week Ahead – Economic Data, Central Bank Policy Meeting Minutes, and Geopolitics in Focus

    Abstract:Its a busier week ahead on the economic calendar. Private sector PMIs will draw plenty of interest late in the week. Geopolitics will also be in focus in the week.

      On the Macro

      Its a busier week ahead on the economic calendar, with 64 stats in focus in the week ending 21st May. In the week prior, 49 stats had been in focus.

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      For the Dollar:

      In the 1st half of the week, NY Empire State Manufacturing and housing sector figures are due out.

      Expect Mays manufacturing numbers to garner the greatest interest early in the week.

      After a quiet Wednesday, the focus will shift to Philly FED Manufacturing and weekly jobless claim figures.

      While both sets of numbers are key, we can expect the jobless claim figures to have a greater impact on the Dollar.

      At the end of the week, prelim private sector numbers and existing home sales figures are due out.

      Expect Mays prelim Services PMI to have the greatest influence on the Dollar and market risk sentiment.

      On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday will be key. Any chatter on inflation will be of greatest interest.

      In the week, the Dollar ended the week up by 0.10% to 90.321.

      For the EUR:

      Its a busier week on the economic data front.

      On Tuesday, 2nd estimate GDP numbers for the Eurozone will provide the EUR with direction.

      Trade figures for March are also due out but will likely have a muted impact on the EUR>

      On Wednesday, finalized April inflation figure for the Eurozone are due out ahead of a busy Friday.

      Prelim private sector PMIs for France, Germany, and the Eurozone wrap things up at the end of the week.

      The big question will be whether the momentum can continue going into the summer… A pickup in service sector activity will be needed.

      The EUR ended the week down by 0.21% to $1.2141.

      For the Pound:

      Its a busy week ahead on the economic calendar.

      Employment and inflation figures are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

      With the markets expect a near-term pickup in inflationary pressures, the employment figures will be key.

      On Thursday, CBI Industrial Trend Orders will draw interest ahead of a particularly busy Friday.

      At the end of the week, retail sales and prelim private sector PMI numbers for May are due out.

      Expect the retail sales and services PMI figures to have the greatest impact on the Pound.

      The Pound ended the week up by 0.81% to $1.4097.

      For the Loonie:

      Its a relatively quiet week ahead on the economic calendar.

      Key stats in the week include April inflation figures on Wednesday and March retail sales figures on Friday.

      Following the BoCs hawkish outlook, expect the retail sales figures to have the greatest influence on the Loonie.

      Early in the week, housing starts and foreign securities purchases are also due out but will likely have a muted impact.

      The Loonie ended the week up 0.24% to C$1.2104 against the U.S Dollar.

      [fx-article-ad]Out of AsiaFor the Aussie Dollar:

      Its another relatively quiet week ahead.

      Key stats include consumer sentiment and wage growth figures mid-week. Both sets of numbers will be of influence.

      The focus will then shift to April employment figures on Thursday. Expect plenty of Aussie Dollar sensitivity to the numbers on Thursday.

      From elsewhere, economic data from China and private sector PMIs from the Eurozone, Asia, and the U.S will also influence.

      On the monetary policy front, the RBA Meeting Minutes on Tuesday will also provide the Aussie with direction.

      The Aussie Dollar ended the week down by 0.93% to $0.7771.

      For the Kiwi Dollar:

      Its a quiet week ahead.

      Wholesale inflation figures for the 1st quarter are due out on Wednesday. With the markets expecting a pickup in input prices, we dont expect too much influence from the numbers. Any softer than forecasted numbers would test support for the Kiwi, however.

      The Kiwi Dollar ended the week down by 0.38% to $0.7250.

      For the Japanese Yen:

      It is a busy week ahead.

      1st quarter GDP numbers and finalized industrial production figures for March are due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

      Expect the GDP numbers to garner the greatest interest.

      On Thursday, trade data for April will also provide the Yen with direction.

      At the end of the week, April inflation figures should have a muted impact on the Yen, however. Prelim private sector PMIs for May will draw interest, however.

      The Japanese Yen fell by 0.69 to ¥109.35 against the U.S Dollar.

      Out of China

      Its a busier week ahead.

      Fixed asset investment, industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment figures are due out on Monday.

      Expect the retail sales and industrial production figures to have the greatest influence on market risk sentiment at the start of the week.

      The Chinese Yuan ended the week down by 0.06% to CNY6.4371 against the U.S Dollar.

      Geo-Politics

      While there are no major risks to consider, the markets will need to continue to eye U.S – China relations.

      The markets will also need to monitor events in the Middle East in the week ahead.

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    • Hong Kong Dollar
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    • Singapore Dollar
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