ETO Markets Global Pulse: Oil Sinks 5.64%, WTI Tests 80

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on August 25 (Tuesday), WTI crude fell sharply and closed at USD 81.11 per barrel, down 4.55% on the day, marking its lowest level since August 13. Brent crude closed at USD 86.77 per barrel, down 5.64%, its lowest level since August 14.

Markets viewed the latest US economic sanctions on Iran as less disruptive to supply than a military escalation. Some traders also saw the sanctions as less severe than expected, easing concerns over immediate supply disruption.

On August 26 (Wednesday) during Asian trading, WTI crude extended its decline and briefly fell toward USD 80.10 per barrel, marking a third straight day of losses. As the US and Iran shifted from military confrontation toward economic pressure, markets reassessed the possibility of a negotiated solution and a recovery in Strait of Hormuz shipping.

Global Headlines

Iran Oman Discuss Hormuz Corridor

Iranian and Omani diplomats held talks in Tehran on establishing a joint temporary navigation corridor and clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides said technical talks will continue, with discussions over a permanent and sustainable route expected over the next 30 to 60 days.

Oman Seeks Long-Term Strait Management

Omani Foreign Minister Busaidi said future talks will focus on long-term management and a permanent solution for the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said both sides had reached consensus on a temporary route, with vessels entering the Gulf fully passing through Iranian waters and outbound vessels partly crossing Iranian and Omani waters.

US Iran Technical Talks Restart

Sources from Pakistan‘s military and Iran’s security agencies said the US and Iran had reached consensus on ceasefire terms, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides are expected to announce details in the coming days and begin technical talks under the Islamabad memorandum.

Rubio Rules Out New Strikes

US Secretary of State Rubio told officials from several allied countries that Washington does not currently expect to launch new military strikes on Iran. The Trump administration is temporarily avoiding military action and is instead using naval blockades and fresh Treasury sanctions to increase economic pressure.

US Says Iran Loses Control

US officials said the clearance of most mines in the Strait of Hormuz and increased tanker traffic through the southern route had weakened Irans influence over global energy markets. Washington said the blockade is cutting off a key revenue source for Iran, with almost no tankers near Kharg Island over the past two weeks.

Trump Says Mines Are Cleared

Trump said on social media that the US Navy had informed him all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz had been cleared or detonated. He said Iran had been warned that any vessel laying new mines would be systematically destroyed. The US is also monitoring the strait through the Space Force, as well as the Gaoshan site and three other destroyed nuclear facilities.

Canada Imposes Tariffs On US

Canada plans to impose tariffs of 15% to 50% on about USD 20 billion of US goods from September 8. The list includes steel, aluminum, motorcycles, home appliances, and food products, with metal tariffs set to double to 50%. Ottawa also announced CAD 7.5 billion in support for affected firms and workers.

US Weighs More Canada Penalties

After Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced matching retaliation against new US tariffs, the Trump administration is discussing additional trade penalties on Canada. A White House official said further steps could include higher tariffs and other trade measures.

FED September Hold Odds 60.4%

CME FedWatch showed a 60.4% probability that the FED will keep rates unchanged in September, with a 39.6% chance of a 25bps hike. By October, markets priced a 45.7% chance of no change, a 44.7% chance of a 25bps hike, and a 9.7% chance of a 50bps hike.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)

From the daily and 4-hour structures, WTI crude has weakened for three consecutive sessions. Short-term highs are moving lower, and prices are now approaching the USD 80 per barrel level.

If WTI breaks below USD 80 effectively, the next downside areas may be USD 78 and the USD 75 to USD 76 range. If the USD 80 level holds and prices reclaim USD 82, a rebound toward USD 84 may follow.

The market remains driven by Strait of Hormuz traffic, US-Iran talks, and sanctions expectations. Short-term focus stays on whether WTI can hold the USD 80 level and confirm a directional breakout. Traders should manage risk carefully.

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