DBG Markets: Market Report for August 26, 2026

Focus on PCE Price Data & Nvidia Earnings Next

Yields Ease, But Focus Turns to PCE & Earnings Next

The yield retreat follows reports that the U.S. Treasury Department is considering tapping its nearly $1 trillion Treasury General Account (TGA) cash pile to finance expanded bond buybacks. This liquidity mechanism has provided temporary breathing room for risk assets.

However, market participants are keeping positioning tightly calibrated ahead of today's two major catalysts:

• U.S. July PCE Price Index: The Feds preferred inflation gauge, which is set to shape market bets on the Fed's September policy path. Headline PCE is expected to ease to 3.6% (vs. 3.7% prior), while Core PCE is expected to hold at 3.3%.

• Nvidias Q2 Earnings Report: A pivotal update to evaluate the health of the semiconductor sector and the broader AI trade narrative.

Hence, today's market is expected to be headline-driven, consolidating ahead of the key releases before seeking a clearer direction.

Technical Analysis & Major Asset Outlook

US Dollar Index: 99.00 Resistance Caps Upside Ahead of PCE

The US Dollar Index remains in a structurally bearish posture while trading beneath the 99.00 psychological resistance handle. Our outlook for the greenback remains unchanged while it stays below 99.00. Today's PCE inflation data will provide the catalyst to determine the next move; otherwise, markets will turn their focus to the Jackson Hole Symposium.

USD Index, H4 Chart

Looking forward, tonight's PCE release may provide the catalyst needed to break the dollar out of its recent range, particularly as the market has largely priced in a Fed hold and requires fresh data to drive the next trend:

• If PCE Inflation Eases Further: Market bets on Fed rate hikes will continue to cool, applying persistent downward pressure on the dollar and keeping price action capped beneath 99.00.

• If Inflation Rebounds Unexpectedly: Rate-hike expectations could firm, triggering a corrective dollar rebound toward the 99.50 resistance boundary if the 99.00 psychological level is reclaimed.

USD/JPY: Rate Differentials & Range Consolidation

Apart from the US Dollar Index itself, USD/JPY remains tightly bound within a horizontal trading channel as yield dynamics and central bank policies hang in balance.

USDJPY, H4 Chart

Technically, USD/JPY upside remains heavily constrained following recent U.S.-Japan FX interventions, yield swings, and shifting policy bets.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Strong Bullish Posture Holds Under $4,660 Resistance

Spot gold maintains a strong bullish posture, supported by broader dollar weakness and liquidity tailwinds, though buyers face a major technical hurdle overhead.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

The direction of gold's next major breakout hinges on today's PCE print and the resulting shift in dollar strength. Primary support on pullbacks rests in the $4,500 – $4,540 zone, with interim support around $4,600.

Nasdaq 100 (UT100): Tech Rebound Awaits Nvidia Catalyst

Tuesday's technology sector bounce provided immediate relief, but broader index direction remains dependent on corporate guidance.

UT100, Daily Chart

The Nasdaq 100 is attempting to stabilize after recent pullbacks, with near-term momentum turning modestly positive while 29,000 holds as major support.

UT100, H4 Chart

As of now, the 29,000 – 29,300 area remains the battleground for bulls and bears. Watch for the next decisive move here.

Bottom Line & Asset Summary

Falling U.S. Treasury yields driven by potential Treasury cash reserve usage provided temporary relief for equities, but focus now shifts to today's dual catalysts: U.S. PCE inflation and Nvidia earnings. The US Dollar stays bearish under 99.00 resistance, USD/JPY consolidates within 158.00 – 160.00, Gold battles $4,660 resistance, and the Nasdaq 100 tests 29,000 – 29,300 support ahead of earnings.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Below 99.00; holding 98.50 support, with PCE expected to determine whether price breaks lower or tests 99.50 resistance.

• USD/JPY: Range-Bound Consolidation; capped below 160.00 resistance with support at 158.00, eyeing moving average bearish crossovers for potential downside extension.

• Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Bullish Standoff; capped under $4,660 resistance, with primary pullback support anchored in the $4,500 – $4,540 region ($4,600 interim).

• Nasdaq 100 (UT100): Cautious Rebound; stabilizing above 29,000 – 29,300 support, with broad directional breakout waiting on Nvidia guidance and PCE data.