Attention on JPY Crosses: Intervention Risk Back in Focus

The Japanese yen has surrendered a significant portion of the gains recorded in late July and early August following coordinated intervention-related activity involving Japanese and U.S. authorities.

Over recent sessions, the market has again heard comments pointing to the possibility of further action. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent referred to the potential for additional Japanese intervention, while ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel indicated that coordinated intervention could be welcomed under certain circumstances.

Against this background, we see increasing risk in maintaining aggressive short-JPY exposure through long positions in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and other yen crosses.

The risk becomes particularly relevant as broader risk assets are beginning to show some signs of weakness, while the Bank of Japan policy meeting later this month could introduce an additional source of volatility.

For now, the yen remains structurally weak. However, any meaningful appreciation could trigger a broader reduction in carry-trade exposure. Such a move could quickly accelerate through position unwinding and potentially support the JPY for several weeks — or even longer.

USD/JPY

Resistance: 160.00–160.60 remains a very strong resistance zone.

Support: 157.00–158.00 represents the first important downside area. A decisive break below this zone could quickly bring the 155.00–156.00 region back into focus.

EUR/JPY

Resistance: 185.00–186.00 remains a significant upside barrier.

Support: 180.00–181.00 is the first major support area to watch in the coming sessions.

GBP/JPY

Resistance: 216.00–217.00 represents the key resistance zone.

Support: 211.00–212.00 is the first significant downside support area.

Market View

JPY crosses remain among the more sensitive instruments to potential intervention headlines, changes in global risk sentiment and shifts in carry-trade positioning.

While the prevailing trend continues to reflect yen weakness, traders should be particularly cautious with leveraged short-JPY positions in the coming weeks. A combination of intervention risk, weaker risk appetite and BOJ-related expectations could create sharp and potentially disorderly moves across major yen crosses.

By Born2trade market research department

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. Born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.