DBG Markets: Market Report for August 4, 2026

Massive Rally Kicks Off August；Dollar Remains Under Pressure

Dollar Index, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY & Gold Analysis

Global financial markets kicked off August on a strong note on Monday, August 3, 2026, as positive geopolitical developments, falling energy costs, and robust corporate earnings sparked a major Wall Street rally. All three major US stock indices pushed sharply higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a new all-time high.

Earnings Momentum & Receding Inflation Fears

Wall Streets strong start to August was underpinned by a combination of cooling oil prices—driven by easing geopolitical friction—and solid corporate fundamental releases over the past two weeks:

· Strong Earnings Execution: Approximately 77% of S&P 500 companies have topped Wall Street estimates so far this earnings season. Equity momentum is expected to remain positive if corporate reports continue to impress, with market focus particularly tuned to SpaceX's first public earnings release as a key gauge for broader technology and growth sentiment.

· Receding Inflation Expectations & Yields: As oil-driven inflation fears receded, the 10-year US Treasury yield eased to approximately 4.68%.

· Fed Rate Expectations: CME FedWatch metrics currently indicate roughly 64.5% odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting. However, because a single hike is largely priced into money markets, traders are actively scaling back bets on any second subsequent rate increase.

Technical Analysis & Asset Outlook

US Dollar Index: Bearish Continuation Under 100.00

The broader macro outlook for the US Dollar Index remains unchanged following its double-top technical breakdown and the ongoing unwinding of aggressive rate-hike narratives from last week. The loss of key structural support confirms a broader bearish reversal.

USD Index, H4 ChartUSD/JPY: Joint FX Intervention Shifts Trend to Cautious Bear

Following joint US-Japan official currency intervention, USD/JPY suffered a dramatic sell-off, plunging over 5% across three sessions and shifting its macro uptrend into a cautious bearish structure. However, traders should avoid aggressively chasing short positions at depressed levels and focus on technical retests.

USDJPY, H4 Chart

Strategy: A retest of 158.00 offers a tactical selling entry, but strict stop-loss management should be applied in case resistance fails. The broader bias remains cautiously bearish as the market digests the lingering aftershocks of intervention momentum.

EUR/USD: Bullish Reversal Confirmed, Watching Pullbacks for Re-entry

In an inverse correlation to the US Dollar Index, EUR/USD completed a confirmed bullish reversal after breaking above its recent consolidation range.

EURUSD, H4 Chart

Key Buy Zones: Monitor near-term pullback support around 1.1500. A deeper technical retracement toward 1.1460 represents a primary buy zone for long setups.

AUD/USD: Testing 0.7000 Resistance

Mirroring the euro's structure, AUD/USD has confirmed a technical bullish reversal in its short-term trend.

AUDUSD, H4 ChartSpot Gold (XAU/USD): Range-Bound with $4,050 Midpoint Pivot in Focus

Spot gold remains locked within its established broad horizontal corridor. Buyers and sellers continue to balance competing macro drivers: falling yields and a weaker dollar support gold, while recovered risk sentiment weighs on safe-haven demand.

XAUUSD, H2 Chart

On the broader horizon, gold is converging into a tighter consolidation pattern—a classic signal of an impending volatility breakout. Until decisive directional momentum enters the market, a range-bound approach remains favored.

· Technical Setup: Intraday price action centers on the $4,050 midpoint pivot.

· Strategy: Monitor $4,050 for potential intraday breakout or rejection signals to define short-term directional setups within the wider range.

Bottom Line & Asset Summary

August opened on a strong risk-on note as easing oil prices and a 77% S&P 500 earnings beat rate drove the Dow to new record highs. Falling 10-year Treasury yields (4.68%) and unwinding secondary Fed hike bets continue to pressure the US Dollar, allowing EUR/USD and AUD/USD to confirm bullish reversals, while USD/JPY remains cautiously bearish post-intervention and Gold consolidates around its $4,050 pivot.

· US Dollar Index (DXY): Bearish Continuation; double-top breakdown confirmed, capped beneath 100.00 overhead resistance.

· USD/JPY: Cautious Bearish; down over 5% post-intervention, watching 158.00 for tactical short entries and 160.00 as primary overhead resistance.

· EUR/USD: Bullish Reversal; consolidation breakout confirmed, watching buy-on-dip zones at 1.1500 and 1.1460.

· AUD/USD: Bullish Reversal; testing major resistance at the 0.7000 psychological handle.

· Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Range-Bound Consolidation; price action converging around the $4,050 midpoint pivot.