Forex and Crypto Forecast: August 3–7, 2026

Last week, the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan all left rates unchanged, but the Fed's less hawkish tone weakened dollar support, pushing the DXY index below 100.00. EUR/USD broke out of its previous range to the upside, closing the week near 1.1530. Bitcoin returned to the 63,000 zone, Brent recovered to 88.30, and gold held around 4,000.

💶 EUR/USD

The previous neutral-to-bearish scenario only held up at the start of the week. On Tuesday, July 28, the pair fell to 1.1353 before reversing and closing the week near 1.1530. Resistance at 1.1480 was broken, showing the dollar lacks strength to sustain further gains. Rising Eurozone inflation gave the euro additional support by lowering the odds of a swift ECB easing. Nearest support sits at 1.1480–1.1500, followed by 1.1390–1.1400 and 1.1350–1.1360. Resistance is located at 1.1560–1.1580, then 1.1620 and 1.1685–1.1700. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1480, the advantage gradually shifts to buyers, though strong US data could push the pair back into its prior range.

🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

BTC/USD climbed to 67,570 early in the week but again failed to hold above the 67,000–67,265 zone, trading around 63,000 on Saturday, August 1. Nearest support lies at 62,360–63,000, followed by 61,255–61,575, 60,300–60,680, and 57,700–59,000. Resistance is located at 64,000–65,570, then 67,000–67,570 and 70,000. As long as BTC/USD stays below 67,000, the market remains range-bound with a bearish tilt.

🛢 Brent Crude

Brent dropped to 80.64 on Tuesday before recovering to close the week near 88.30. This move showed the market is ready for sharp corrections after July's rally, though the geopolitical premium has not fully faded. Risks around Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and supply remain the key driver. Support sits at 86.00–88.00, then 82.60–84.00 and 80.60–81.00. Resistance is located at 89.60–90.00, followed by 94.85–96.15 and 98.60–100.00. As long as Brent holds above 88.00, bullish momentum persists, albeit weakened. A drop below 84.00 would raise the risk of a deeper correction.

🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold traded sideways near 4,000 all week within a 3,995–4,120 range, closing around 4,045. Geopolitical risk and a softer dollar supported gold, while descending resistance kept upside potential capped. Nearest support lies at 3,995–4,020, then 3,940–3,960 and 3,880. Resistance is located at 4,100–4,120, followed by 4,165 and 4,200–4,250. As long as XAU/USD stays below 4,200, the scenario remains neutral, and a stronger driver is needed to break the sideways pattern.

📈 Key events and likely trends for the week

Focus turns to US business activity and labor market data: August 3 — ISM Manufacturing PMI; August 5 — ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for July and ISM Services PMI; August 7 — the main US labor market report, including Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.

Likely weekly trends: EUR/USD — moderately bullish above 1.1480. BTC/USD — range-bound with a bearish tilt below 67,000. Brent — moderately bullish above 88.00 with downside correction risk. XAU/USD — neutral.

By Born2trade market research department

Risk Disclaimer: All research and/or forecasts above reflect the author's personal opinion and cannot be treated as trading advice. Born2trade is not responsible for any trading results based on any information in this article. Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital. You may lose all of your invested funds. Forex and CFD trading may not be suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and, if necessary, seek independent advice.