Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Will Uncertainty Spark a New Gold Rally?

16/04/2026

Key Highlights

• The U.S. President continues to threaten Jerome Powell

• Market safe-haven sentiment remains elevated

• The U.S. Dollar Index continues to trend downward

Market Review

Donald Trump threatened to dismiss Chairman Powell if he refuses to resign after his term ends.

• President Trump has intensified the Department of Justice‘s criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. In a television interview, he stated that he would not abandon the investigation and warned that if Powell does not step down when his chairmanship term ends next month, he would be dismissed.

• “Then I will have to fire him, okay？” Trump said during an interview aired Wednesday morning on Fox Business.

• Federal Reserve officials are protected by a law that limits the grounds for their removal. The Supreme Court is currently weighing the boundaries of this law and preparing to rule on another case involving Trump’s attempt to dismiss a different Federal Reserve official.

• Trump‘s remarks indicate that his intention to remove Powell remains firm.

• Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair will expire in about one month. However, he may choose to remain as a voting member of the Federal Reserve Board until 2028. Last month, Powell stated that he has “no intention of leaving” the Federal Reserve until the investigation is “complete, transparent, and fully concluded.”

• When asked about the matter during the Fox Business interview, Trump responded:

• “If he does not leave on time, I will fire him. I have always wanted to fire him, but I dislike creating controversy. You know, I want to avoid controversy.”

• Trump also appeared to suggest that he would continue supporting the investigation even if it delays the confirmation of his nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh.

• Senator Thom Tillis stated that he would not support Warshs nomination until the investigation into Powell is resolved.

• When asked whether he believed Tillis would vote in favor of Warsh, Trump replied:“He probably won't, and that's why Tillis will no longer be a senator.”

• Tillis, a Republican, is nearing retirement but remains in office.

• Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott said on Tuesday that he believes the deadlock will resolve itself. In another Fox Business interview, he stated that the Department of Justice investigation could conclude within weeks, though he acknowledged he had no specific evidence to support that prediction.

• The Department of Justice is investigating whether Powell misled Congress regarding testimony about renovations to the Federal Reserve building. The matter appears to be ongoing, as prosecutors inspected the construction site on Tuesday.

Affected Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Gold

• S&P 500

Summary

The U.S. Presidents renewed threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have temporarily boosted market safe-haven sentiment. This development has indirectly supported gains in precious metals, while the U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure.

Today's Key Event Analysis

• Australia Employment Change

• United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

• Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Today, the market will closely monitor the UK GDP release. Historical data suggests that the UK economy has gradually entered a slowdown phase, leading market expectations that the upcoming data may come in below forecasts.

Affected Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Stock Indices

Trading Strategy for Today

Bias: Long (Precious Metals)

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key indicator used to measure market sentiment, reflecting whether investors are driven by fear or greed.

According to the latest data, the index stands at 56 (Risk Sentiment), compared with the previous reading of 47, indicating that safe-haven demand is gradually declining.

The market is increasingly digesting developments related to the Iran conflict, leading to a cooling in safe-haven demand. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index has entered a downward trend, while risk assets such as stock indices and cryptocurrencies have begun to move higher.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAUUSD)

Following President Trumps announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, market safe-haven sentiment has cooled significantly. This has led to a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and indirectly supported further upside potential for gold.

Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken above the 4844 resistance level and is expected to maintain a strong bullish trend in the short term.

Strategy:

Continue positioning for long trades, with key support focus around the 4790 level.