Nasdaq Extends Rally to 10 Sessions on Iran Deal Hopes; Crude Plunges 8%

Market Overview

Renewed expectations surrounding U.S.–Iran negotiations reignited global risk appetite yesterday, driving a broad-based rebound in U.S. equities. The S&P 500 approached record highs, while the Nasdaq Composite extended its winning streak to ten consecutive sessions—marking its longest rally since late 2021—with cumulative gains exceeding 12%.

Easing inflation concerns, following softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, pushed both Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower. However, the energy sector faced a sharp sell-off, with WTI crude tumbling nearly 8%. Major oil producers, including ExxonMobil, have now fully erased their geopolitical risk premium gains.

Technology & Semiconductors

The semiconductor sector maintained strong upward momentum, with both the memory chip index and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index reaching fresh highs. Meta Platforms surged over 4%, leading gains among mega-cap tech stocks. Financials showed divergence following earnings releases: Citigroup climbed 3%, while Wells Fargo dropped as much as 7% intraday on disappointing results.

Precious Metals & Commodities

Despite easing safe-haven demand, gold surged 2% against the broader trend, breaking above $4,800, supported by a seven-day decline in the U.S. dollar and persistent inflation-hedging demand. Silver futures outperformed, jumping 5% and approaching the $80 level. In contrast, crude oil faced aggressive liquidation amid renewed diplomatic hopes, with WTI falling 7.8% to around $91 per barrel.

FX & Cryptocurrencies

The U.S. Dollar Index extended its losing streak to seven consecutive sessions, reflecting clear liquidity spillover effects. Offshore RMB strengthened beyond the 6.81 level. Bitcoin traded actively, briefly surging to a record high near $76,000 before experiencing partial profit-taking.

Fixed Income

Moderate PPI data supported a recovery in bond markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by 4.5 basis points, falling below 4.2%, providing critical support for equity valuation expansion—particularly in the technology sector.

Key Themes AheadInflation Data Comes in Broadly Below Expectations

U.S. March PPI data came in softer across the board, easing near-term inflation concerns, although persistent upstream pricing pressures continue to warrant caution.

• Headline PPI (YoY): +4.0%, highest since February 2023, but below expectations of 4.6%

• Headline PPI (MoM): +0.5%, significantly below the expected 1.2% (prior: +0.7%)

• Core PPI (MoM, ex-food & energy): +0.1%, below expectations of 0.5% (prior: +0.5%)

• Core PPI (YoY): +3.8%, slightly down from the previous 3.9%

Iran Signals Willingness to Continue Talks

Following the collapse of marathon negotiations in Islamabad, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated that Iran “has not moved far enough,” while Donald Trump escalated pressure by signaling potential action to block the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded by expressing willingness to continue negotiations within the framework of international law, leaving room for a diplomatic resolution.

Amid these mixed signals, global oil prices dropped more than 2% on Tuesday, as markets continued to price in the remaining probability of a negotiated outcome—suggesting that “the ball is still in Irans court.”

Key Data to Watch (GMT+8)

20:30 (ET)

• U.S. April New York Fed Manufacturing Index

• U.S. March Import Price Index (MoM)

22:30 (ET)

• U.S. April NAHB Housing Market Index

• EIA Crude Oil Inventories (week ending Apr 10)

• EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (week ending Apr 10)

• EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories (week ending Apr 10)