Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: CPI Data Ahead, Will Markets See a Major Move Tonight?

10 April 2026

Key Highlights

• US inflation remains elevated

• US 10-year Treasury yields stay supported

• Downside for the US Dollar Index remains limited

Market ReviewUS PCE Inflation Remains Elevated

• Latest data on Thursday showed that US consumers continued to spend in February, but spending only kept pace with rising prices. The Iran conflict is expected to further increase costs.

• Consumer spending rose 0.5% in February, higher than 0.3% in January. However, after adjusting for inflation, real spending increased only 0.1%, indicating limited consumption momentum.

• The PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month, with the annual rate holding at 2.8%, suggesting inflation remains stubbornly above normal levels.

• The Core PCE index also increased 0.4%, with the annual rate rising from 2.9% to 3.0%, showing persistent underlying inflation pressure.

• Core inflation momentum is strengthening, with the 3-month annualized rate reaching 4.4%. Meanwhile, goods prices increased 0.7%, the largest gain in four years, indicating continued tariff and cost pressures.

• The savings rate declined from 4.5% to 4.0%, while real disposable income fell 0.5%, suggesting consumers are relying on savings to sustain spending.

• Rising fuel and living costs may quickly offset any temporary income gains from tax refunds in the coming months.

Affected Instruments:

USD | Gold | S&P 500

US GDP Shows Signs of Slowdown

• According to the latest estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, US GDP grew only 0.5% annualized in Q4 2025, sharply down from 4.4% in Q3, indicating a clear slowdown in economic momentum.

• GDP was revised down by 0.2 percentage points, mainly due to weaker investment.

• Economic growth was supported by consumer spending and investment, but partially offset by declines in government spending and exports.

• The service sector continued to expand, while government and goods-producing industries weakened.

• Gross Domestic Income (GDI) grew 2.6%, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter, confirming softer economic activity.

• Despite slower growth, corporate profits increased by USD 246.9 billion, higher than the previous quarter.

Affected Instruments:

USD | Gold | S&P 500

Summary

With US inflation remaining elevated, markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates in the near term. This continues to support US Treasury yields and limits downside pressure on the US Dollar Index, indirectly weighing on precious metals such as gold and silver.

Today's Key Events

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Canada Employment Change

• US Consumer Sentiment

Markets will closely monitor the US CPI data, as persistent inflation suggests the reading could come in above expectations, potentially supporting the US Dollar.

Affected Instruments:

• USD

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• US Equity Indices

Trading Bias Today:

Buy on Precious Metals

Market Sentiment AnalysisFear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index, a key gauge of market sentiment, currently stands at 36 (Fear), up from 31, indicating that risk-off sentiment remains elevated.

Rising energy prices due to geopolitical tensions have increased concerns about persistent inflation and prolonged high interest rates. At the same time, trade tariffs continue to pressure the economy, driving demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Given the elevated risk sentiment, investors may consider positioning in gold, silver, and US Treasuries.

Technical AnalysisXAUUSD

Following US President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, market risk sentiment eased, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields and providing support for gold prices.

Technically, gold has broken above the 4787 resistance level, suggesting continued bullish momentum in the near term.

Strategy:

Maintain a buy-on-dips approach, with key support around 4700.