ETO Markets Global Pulse: Oil Crashes 16%, Rebounds to 96.80

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on April 8 (Wednesday), WTI crude plunged sharply, breaking below USD 100 per barrel and hitting an intraday low of USD 94.41. The decline exceeded 16% at one point, driven by a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and expectations of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which rapidly unwound geopolitical risk premium.

On April 9 (Thursday) during early Asian trading, WTI crude briefly tested the USD 91 level before rebounding more than 2.5%. It is currently trading around USD 96.80 per barrel, showing a short-term recovery after the sharp sell-off.

Global Headlines

Ceasefire Broken Strait Closed Again

Israel launched its largest airstrike on Lebanon in this conflict cycle. Iran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire and announced another closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning of potential retaliation. US-Iran talks remain uncertain, with clear disagreements over ceasefire terms.

Iran Says Deal Terms Violated

Irans parliament speaker stated that three key conditions in the “10-point proposal” were breached before talks began. These include the failure of a Lebanon ceasefire, drone incursions into Iranian airspace, and disputes over uranium enrichment rights, raising doubts over the negotiation framework.

US Denies Lebanon In Ceasefire

US Vice President Vance said the ceasefire agreement never included Lebanon, highlighting a mismatch in expectations. He added that Israel intends to remain restrained in Lebanon to avoid disrupting negotiations.

FED Minutes Highlight Policy Risks

FOMC minutes show officials are balancing dual risks from the conflict. A weaker labor market may support rate cuts, while rising inflation may require tightening. Most officials favor holding rates steady while keeping flexibility.

Rate Cut Odds Drop Sharply

CME data shows a 98.4% probability that the FED will hold rates unchanged in April. The probability of a 25bps rate cut by December has dropped to 22.3%, reflecting repricing of inflation and geopolitical risks.

Foreign Demand For Treasuries Falls

US Treasury auctions show declining participation from foreign investors. Allocations to overseas accounts fell to multi-month lows, while official holdings dropped by about USD 66 billion, suggesting liquidity pressures amid rising oil prices.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Oil)

WTI crude found support near 93.60 and staged a rebound. The short-term trend has shifted into a recovery phase. If prices hold above 93.60, further upside may test 98.30 and extend toward 101.30, reflecting a partial rebuild of risk premium.

If WTI falls back below 93.60, downside risks may reopen, with potential retests of 91.00 or even 89.00. This would signal renewed weakness and increased volatility.

RSI is trending higher, indicating improving momentum. However, the market remains range-bound, and a clear trend has not been established. Price action is still driven by geopolitical uncertainty and shifting expectations, with choppy recovery likely in the near term.

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