Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Gold Up, Dollar Under Pressure: NFP in Focus

03/04/2026 – Market Briefs

• Risk sentiment remains elevated

• Gold enters an upward trend

• US dollar faces heightened volatility

Market Overview

President Trump addressed the nation regarding the US-Iran conflict, aiming to reassure Americans that the military action aligns with US national interests. He emphasized that while the conflict is serious, economic disruptions are expected to be short-lived. Trump highlighted tactical military successes, including strikes on over 12,000 Iranian targets and the elimination of key figures, while noting that strategic risks, such as Irans strengthened control over the Strait of Hormuz, remain.

In his address, Trump stressed the importance of understanding this conflict compared with past long-term US engagements, underscoring that a swift resolution is achievable. He reiterated the possibility of a diplomatic agreement but maintained that further military pressure on Iran would continue if necessary. His comments slightly eased market risk sentiment, giving short-term support to equities and cryptocurrencies.

The market also reacted to the potential implications for energy and commodity prices. Trump indicated that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen naturally after the conflict, signaling a possible stabilization in oil markets. The combination of easing geopolitical concerns and sustained risk appetite contributed to a positive trend in precious metals, with gold beginning an upward trajectory as investors sought safe-haven assets.

Financial Instruments Impacted: USD, Gold, S&P 500

Key Event Today: US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

Market focus is on todays NFP data. Historical trends suggest the US economy remains resilient, and expectations point to figures potentially exceeding forecasts.

Affected Financial Instruments:

• US Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• US Equity Indices

Trading Strategy: Long positions in precious metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key measure of market sentiment, indicating whether investors are currently driven by fear or greed. The latest data shows the index at 15 (Extreme Fear), up slightly from the previous reading of 14, suggesting that risk-averse sentiment remains elevated.

The conflict in Iran has pushed energy prices sharply higher, raising concerns over sustained inflation and prompting central banks to maintain interest rate levels. This, in turn, has increased demand for safe-haven assets, including gold and silver. Additionally, the US economy is facing pressure from tariffs, further boosting demand for protective investments.

Given the persistent risk-averse sentiment in the market, a long positioning strategy is recommended for gold, silver, and US Treasuries.

Technical Analysis – XAU/USD

The current gold price has tested resistance around the EMA89 and EMA144 at 4788, after which a downward trend has begun. With risk-averse sentiment remaining high, support for precious metals is expected to strengthen.

For today, gold is anticipated to remain in a consolidating downtrend, with key levels to watch between 4650 and 4727.