S&P 500 Extends Winning Streak to Five Sessions as Fed Independence Faces Scrutiny

Market Overview

Easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have signaled a tentative willingness from both sides to de-escalate the Middle East conflict, triggering a broad-based rebound across asset classes.

Spot gold surged 3.5%, marking its third consecutive daily gain, though it still posted an 11% decline for March. Spot silver jumped over 7%, reclaiming levels above $75, yet remained down nearly 20% for the month. COMEX copper rose 3% on Tuesday, bringing its March decline to nearly 7%.

Equities rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.9% and the Nasdaq surging 3.8%. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year yield falling by 3 basis points and the 2-year yield dropping 3.29 basis points. The VIX index plunged 17.51%, suggesting a temporary easing of market uncertainty.

Key Developments to WatchU.S. Signals Potential Withdrawal; Iran Shows Willingness to End Conflict

Iran‘s president stated that the country is open to ending the war, provided guarantees are in place to prevent future aggression. Iran’s foreign minister noted that while there has been indirect communication with the U.S., no formal negotiations have taken place.

Reports indicate that Donald Trump is open to a ceasefire even if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened. While military options remain available, they are reportedly not his preferred course of action. Trump emphasized that the conflict with Iran would not be prolonged and suggested that other nations could play a role in reopening the strait. He also stated that allies must “step in and handle” the situation, adding that a U.S. withdrawal will occur eventually, though not immediately.

The U.S. aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is currently being deployed to the Middle East. Iran‘s president reiterated that restoring regional stability requires an end to aggressive military actions, while the foreign minister stressed that Iran seeks not merely a ceasefire, but a complete end to the broader regional conflict. Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador to Iran confirmed that Irans Supreme Leader remains within the country.

JOLTS Data Signals Cooling Labor Market

The U.S. February JOLTS report showed job openings declining to 6.882 million, with the hiring rate falling to its lowest level in six years and layoffs edging higher. Voluntary quits also declined, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market.

The drop in job openings was primarily concentrated in the hospitality and manufacturing sectors, reflecting a broad-based reduction in hiring demand. While major tech firms continue to implement layoffs, the trend has yet to spread across the broader economy. Rising energy costs driven by the Iran conflict may further weigh on hiring activity in the coming months.

Key Data Releases to Monitor (GMT+8)

• 20:15 – U.S. March ADP Employment Change (in thousands)

• 20:30 – U.S. February Retail Sales

• 21:45 – U.S. March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)

• 22:00 – U.S. March ISM Manufacturing Index