Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Hawkish Fed Expectations Continue to Pressure Gold

16 March 2026- Global financial markets started the new week under a complex mix of macroeconomic forces. During early Asian trading, spot gold came under pressure and eased back toward the USD 5,000/oz level, as the extreme premium previously driven by safe-haven demand is now facing a strong correction from fundamental factors.

According to CME Group FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged this week has reached 99.2%. This higher-for-longer rate outlook continues to support the US dollar and puts clear pressure on non-yielding assets such as precious metals.

In contrast, Brent Crude has moved above USD 100 per barrel, mainly driven by ongoing deadlock in the Middle East conflict and stronger rhetoric from senior Iranian officials. With geopolitical premium and tight monetary policy pulling markets in opposite directions, overall sentiment remains highly sensitive.

Asset Market Performance & Fundamental Overview

1. US Equity Market

Index Performance

• S&P 500: 6,661.98, up 0.59%. The S&P 500 continues to show resilience despite macro uncertainty, with funds rotating toward large-cap blue chips ahead of the Fed decision for defensive growth exposure.

• Nasdaq-100: 24,492.50, up 0.40%. Tech stocks remain relatively stable, although valuation expansion is limited under prolonged high interest rates, leading to more selective sector performance.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 46,558.47, down 0.26%. Traditional industrial and value sectors underperformed slightly, reflecting cautious sentiment toward growth expectations.

Stock Focus

• Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): USD 391.20, down 0.96%. Tesla remains below the USD 400 level, with higher energy costs and softer spending expectations putting temporary pressure on valuation premiums during the tightening cycle.

2. Forex Market

• U.S. Dollar Index: 100.232, down 0.26%. Despite reduced Fed cut expectations, safe-haven demand into non-USD currencies, especially the euro, has kept the dollar slightly softer above the 100 level.

• EUR/USD: 1.14493, up 0.31%. Euro strength is supported by easing concerns over Europes energy security amid Middle East developments, with liquidity returning to major non-USD assets.

• USD/JPY: 159.331, down 0.23%. Yen weakness has slowed near the 160 level as carry trade momentum begins to cool, showing early technical stabilisation.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Precious Metals

• XAU/USD: USD 5,027.725/oz, up 0.14%. Gold remains consolidating above USD 5,000. Although a stronger dollar creates pressure, geopolitical risk and long-term inflation hedging demand continue to keep gold as a core institutional safe-haven allocation.

• XAG/USD: USD 81.3585/oz, up 0.92%. Silver is outperforming gold, reflecting stronger price elasticity supported by both industrial demand and safe-haven flows.

Commodities

• WTI Crude Oil: USD 98.22/barrel, down 0.97%. Oil has pulled back slightly below the USD 100 mark as markets reassess real supply disruption risks against weaker demand outlook.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Developments

• Bitcoin: USD 72,636, down 0.27%. Bitcoin is facing strong resistance near USD 75,000 as traders reduce risk ahead of the Fed meeting.

• Ethereum: USD 2,172.7, down 0.26%. Ethereum continues to move in line with broader market sentiment under tighter liquidity conditions.

5. Key Data to Watch Today

• Canada February CPI m/m

• Canada February Core CPI Median y/y

• Canada February Core CPI Trimmed Mean y/y

• Canada February Core CPI Common y/y

• US March Federal Reserve Bank of New York Manufacturing Index