ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Holds Below 5200 as Iran Sets Ceasefire Conditions

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on March 11 (Wednesday) gold prices edged lower. Spot gold closed at USD 5,176/oz, down about 0.3% on the day, while April U.S. gold futures declined more sharply, falling 1.2% to USD 5,179.10/oz.

During Asian trading on March 12 (Thursday), spot gold moved slightly lower in a narrow range and was trading near USD 5,150/oz.

Global Headlines

Iran Proposes Three Conditions for Ceasefire

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that ending the current conflict would require recognition of Irans legitimate rights, compensation for war damages, and international security guarantees to prevent future aggression.

Rate-Cut Expectations Pushed Further Back

CME FedWatch data shows markets now assign a 99.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March. Expectations for a mid-year rate cut have weakened as investors reassess the policy path.

IEA Plans Release of 400 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves

The International Energy Agency and its 32 member states agreed to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to ease supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions. The planned release represents the largest in the agencys history.

Iran Warns Oil Could Reach USD 200

Iran warned that oil prices could surge to USD 200 per barrel following attacks on commercial vessels, raising concerns about energy markets and global shipping routes.

U.S. Core CPI Falls to Five-Year Low

U.S. February CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year while core CPI increased 2.5%, both in line with expectations. Core inflation has now fallen to its lowest level in five years.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

From a technical perspective, USD 5,195 remains the key near-term resistance. As long as prices stay below this level, downside risks remain with potential targets at USD 5,115 and USD 5,090. A break above USD 5,195 could open room for a rebound toward USD 5,215 and USD 5,235.

RSI indicates that short-term momentum remains weak. If the 5,195 resistance continues to hold, the probability of a pullback toward the 5,115 region remains elevated. Gold continues to fluctuate between geopolitical developments, U.S. dollar movements, and shifting rate expectations. Investors should carefully assess trading rhythm and risk exposure.

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