EURUSD edges higher past 1.1600 as U.S. Inflation looms

Cautious mood prevails

Market sentiment remains unclear and mostly cautious early Wednesday. Mixed headlines from the Strait of Hormuz and anxiety ahead of the U.S. inflation data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, keep traders cautious. Markets are also watching preparations for the Group of Seven (G7) meeting and the global reaction to the Iran war, adding to the uncertain mood.

The confusion began when U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on Twitter that the U.S. Navy had successfully escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Around 25 minutes later, after the news had already spread across major news wires, he deleted the post. This caused crude oil prices to drop quickly to $77 before rebounding to $81. The White House later confirmed that no ship had actually been escorted.

EURUSD reverses previous weekly loss ahead of key catalysts

EURUSD is gaining bids early Wednesday, reversing Tuesday‘s pullback from a one-week high and extending the rebound that started at the beginning of the week from the lowest level since November 2025. The move is mainly supported by a softer U.S. Dollar (USD) and hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, while the pair largely ignores mostly positive U.S. data and mixed European Union (EU) statistics. Market positioning ahead of Germany’s inflation data and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), along with scheduled speeches from several ECB and Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, is also supporting the Euros recovery.

GBPUSD also rebounded, but USDJPY stays firmer

GBPUSD also records modest gains early Wednesday and is on track for weekly gains, supported mainly by the softer U.S. Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, USDJPY moves slightly higher and maintains the rebound seen in the previous session.

AUDUSD hits 45-month high, NZDUSD edges higher, USDCAD stays weak

AUDUSD climbed to its highest level since June 2022, extending its four-day uptrend. The rise is mainly supported by hawkish comments from a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) (Reserve Bank of Australia) official and a softer U.S. Dollar (USD). Cautious optimism about China, Australia‘s key trading partner, also supports the pair’s strength. This positive mood also helps NZDUSD remain firm.

Crude oil retreats, gold remains strong, but cryptocurrencies & equities dribble

Oil is currently driving market movements, and the situation turned messy during Tuesdays North American trading session. Crude oil prices were steadily falling toward $80, helping calm markets, but miscommunication, leaks, and later denials caused sharp swings. Early Wednesday, black gold moved lower again as markets expect large oil reserve releases from the International Energy Agency (IEA) (International Energy Agency) and possible efforts by the Group of Seven (G7) to ease geopolitical tensions.

Latest moves of key assets

• WTI crude oil price drops 3.0% intraday to $83.70 by press time.

• Gold defends the previous days recovery by rising to $5,210 as we write.

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) falls to 98.70 while reversing the previous days gains.

• Wall Street closed mixed, and the Asia-Pacific stocks also drifted lower. Still, equities in Europe and the UK lack clear direction during the initial hour.

• Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) both post mild intraday losses while stalling the previous two-day uptrend, declining to $69,800 and $2,020 at the latest.

Predictions for top-tier assets

• Bullish Move Expected: Gold, Silver

• Further Downside Likely: USDCHF, BTCUSD, ETHUSD, USDJPY

• Sideways Movement Anticipated: USDCAD, Nasdaq, DJI30, USDCNH, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, US Dollar

• Slow & Gradual Fall Eyed: DAX, FTSE 100, EURUSD, Crude Oil, GBPUSD