DBG Markets: Market Report for Mar 13, 2026

Surging Yields & Oil Rescue the Dollar as Equities SlideDollar, US Indices & Aussie Outlook

US CPI In-Line: Stagflation Nightmare Averted, For Now

The global financial markets experienced a fleeting moment of relief following the release of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The inflation data printed exactly in line with market expectations.

After last week's shockingly poor Non-Farm Payrolls report, an unexpectedly hot CPI would have confirmed a worst-case “stagflation” scenario. By meeting expectations, the data temporarily eased the market's deepest macroeconomic fears, suggesting that while inflation remains sticky, it is not spiraling completely out of control just yet.

Surging Oil and Weak Treasury Demand Spike Yields

However, the post-CPI market relief was incredibly short-lived. The overarching geopolitical reality quickly reasserted its dominance.

Crude oil prices experienced another aggressive surge as the US-Iran conflict continues to threaten global supply chains. Breaking reports of oil tankers being attacked near Iraq and the broader Gulf region have kept the inflationary war premium firmly intact.

US Dollar Rebounds as Equities Slide

US Dollar Outlook

The sudden explosion in Treasury yields acted as a massive fundamental lifeline for the US Dollar. Just as the Greenback was testing critical technical support levels and flirting with a broader bearish reversal, the surging yields forcefully dragged the Dollar Index back up.

Global capital once again rotated into the Dollar, drawn by the irresistible combination of high yields and safe-haven appeal.

USD Index, H1 Chart

Technically, the US Dollar Index aggressively defended the 98.60 to 98.80 support zone. The yield-driven rebound has pushed the index back into the heart of its consolidation range, pressuring the upper boundary near 99.25.

However, ahead of Friday's PCE data—the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—the Greenback is highly likely to remain trapped in a consolidation pattern.

Outlook: For intraday trading, the Dollar is expected to remain capped within its current 98.80 to 99.25 range. While a brief test toward the 99.40 area is possible, overall upside momentum will likely remain restricted.

US Equities Outlook

Conversely, the spike in yields acted as a wrecking ball for US equities. High interest rates heavily discount future corporate earnings, severely punishing growth and tech stocks.

UT100, Daily Chart

For the Nasdaq 100 (UT100), our outlook remains unchanged. The 25,000 level continues to prove itself as a formidable resistance ceiling that caps any upside potential.

With selling pressure building, a decisive breakdown below the 24,750 to 25,000 zone would open the door for a further leg down toward the 24,000 mark, or potentially lower.

US500, Daily Chart

A similar structural weakness is visible in the S&P 500 (US500). The 6,780 level acts as the critical neckline for a confirmed multiple-top reversal pattern.

As long as the index remains pressured below the 6,780 to 6,800 resistance zone, another leg down is highly probable, with the next major liquidity floor resting near 6,500.

Aussie Defies Dollar Strength

In the currency markets, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is emerging as a fascinating outlier. Despite the renewed strength in the US Dollar and broader risk-off sentiment, the Aussie is exhibiting remarkable resilience.

The fundamental drivers behind this Aussie strength include the explosive rally in global commodity prices, rising inflation expectations, and mounting bets on a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike.

As a major commodity exporter, Australia directly benefits from the massive price surges in energy and raw materials triggered by the current geopolitical crisis. This “commodity super-cycle” dynamic is providing an incredibly strong fundamental floor for the AUD.

AUDUSD, H4 Chart

Technically, AUDUSD has firmly defended the 0.7000 psychological support level. The pair is currently absorbing broader Dollar strength much better than its European peers. If commodity prices remain elevated, the Aussie is well-positioned to carve out a near-term bullish continuation.

However, technical confirmation is required. The pair must hold above the 0.7100 level to validate further upside. A failure to hold this level could expose a false breakout, leading to further consolidation.

Bottom Line & What to Watch Today

The financial markets are caught in a violent crossfire between macroeconomic data and geopolitical reality. While an in-line CPI print offered a brief reprieve, spiking Treasury yields and soaring oil prices have thrust the market back into a highly defensive posture.