DBG Markets: Market Report for Feb 6, 2026

Risk-Aversion: AI Hype Meets the "Margin Compression" RealityNasdaq, Gold & USDJPY Outlook

Yesterday served as a violent wake-up call for the bulls as global markets entered a broad "Risk-Off" liquidation. The narrative has shifted aggressively from AI-driven euphoria to a dual fear of economic softening and spending fatigue.

With todays NFP report cancelled due to the government shutdown, the market is flying blind—relying on a series of bruising data points from earlier this week to navigate the turbulence.

The Sentiment Shift: Labor Fears & Capex Explosions

This sentiment turn wasn't just a typical "dip"; it represents a fundamental re-evaluation of the 2026 growth story.

The "Capex" Panic

The Tech sector‘s era of "infinite spending" has hit its first real wall. Amazon’s projection of a massive $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026 (a staggering jump from $131 billion in 2025) triggered an 11% slide. Investors have finally moved past the promise of AI and started asking the "Show me the money" question regarding actual ROI.

As Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta followed suit with outsized AI spending forecasts, the market shifted from valuing "potential" to fearing "margin compression."

The Labor Concerns

The “resilient job market” narrative is also under fire. Following the earlier ADP miss, the Challenger Job Cuts and JOLTS Job Openings have both signaled the worst labor conditions since the 2020 crisis.

Adding fuel to the fire, Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 231K (vs. 212K forecast), flashing a clear warning sign for the broader US economy and equity markets.

US Equities: Has the Trend Finally Broken？

With uncertainty mounting, the "buy-the-dip" mentality in the tech sector is facing its sternest test in months. Labor cracks combined with spending concerns have effectively tempered the aggressive dip-buying sentiment.

UT100, Daily Chart

For the first time since November 2025, the index has broken below the 24,750 – 25,000 zone—a major technical signal.

While the 25,000 level was briefly breached in early November, the difference this time is that the sell-off followed a failed attempt to break the 26,000-record high, suggesting that buyers are losing steam.

UT100, H4 Chart

In the near-term, if the UT100 fails to regain the 24,750 – 25,000 zone, it would confirm that bearish momentum is building.

Outlook: Until the index decisively reclaims the 25,000-handle, any bounce should be viewed with scepticisms. Support is currently fragile at 23,900. A weekly close below current levels would likely signal a deeper correction heading into next week.

Gold Outlook: A Paradigm Shift in Repricing

Paradoxically, Gold failed to act as the primary haven during this risk-off surge. Instead of catching a bid from equity fear, the metal is undergoing a structural repricing phase.

Gold has cracked the 4,800 level; despite a "perfect" macro environment for safe havens, based on my view, the earlier historic volatility has left the market hesitant to commit fully.

XAUUSD, H4 Chart

The current outlook suggests a range-bound trend with a upside bias. If the $4,800 resistance temporarily fails to hold, the next leg down toward $4,600 remains the primary technical target. Gold is currently taking a backseat to the US Dollar in the global fight for "Top Haven" status.

XAUUSD, M30 Chart

However, it is worth noting that Golds safe-haven status is not gone. In a dominated risk-aversion environment, the 4,630 – 4,700 area remains a massive support base.

Outlook: Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid sour sentiment, but the "repricing stage" will keep it range-bound. The 4,630 – 4,700 zone remains the primary buy zone for Gold in the near-term.

The Yen & USD/JPY: The Carry Trade Unwind

The Japanese Yen is finally finding its voice as it capitalizes on the broader market panic.

As risk aversion spikes, the massive carry trades that dominated late 2025 are being aggressively liquidated. This unwinding has placed intense downward pressure on Yen cross-pairs, most notably GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, particularly after the ECB and Bank of England delivered their respective "cautious holds."

However, the full extent of this carry trade unwind remains uncertain. The Yen still faces headwinds from its own inherent weakness and a fierce battle against an "unshakeable" US Dollar, which is also drawing significant safe-haven flows.

USDJPY, H4 Chart

In the near term, expect USD/JPY to become a primary battleground of "Safe Haven vs. Safe Haven".

· Key Levels: The pair is currently trading near a major resistance zone of 157.00 – 158.00.

· Key Signal: We need to see sustained selling pressure at these levels to confirm that the Yen has sufficient strength to capitalize on risk aversion and drive a deeper carry trade unwind.

· Divergence: It is worth noting that Yen strength is likely to be far more pronounced in the crosses (like EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY) as long as the Dollar maintains its status as the global liquidity king.