ETO Markets Global Pulse: Gold Slips 0.56% as NFP Lifts Hike Bets

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on September 7 (Monday), spot gold edged lower, closing at USD 4,406.67 per ounce, down 0.56%. Last Fridays strong US August jobs report, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, lifted expectations for a FED rate hike in September. Rising bond yields also pressured gold and silver.

On September 8 (Tuesday) during early Asian trading, spot gold traded around USD 4,412 per ounce. The short-term structure remains range-bound. Trading volume was relatively light in the previous session due to the US holiday.

Global Headlines

PBOC Extends 22-Month Gold Streak

PBOC data showed that Chinas gold reserves rose to 76.73 million ounces by the end of August 2026, up 650,000 ounces from July. This marked the 22nd consecutive month of gold purchases. The PBOC added 640,000 ounces in July and 480,000 ounces in June, showing a further increase in August buying.

FED Hike Bets Heat Up

After the US jobs report, traders priced about a 60% probability that the FED will raise rates by 25bp at its September 15–16 meeting. UBS said the key question is not only whether the FED hikes, but whether the move is driven by stronger growth or inflation pressure, as the portfolio impact may differ.

Trump Posts Expanded US Map

Trump posted a map on social media showing the US flag covering the United States, Canada, Mexico, much of Central America, Greenland, Iceland, Cuba, and Jamaica. A day earlier, he also posted a map renaming New Mexico as “New America.”

Hormuz Strait Traffic Falls Sharply

MarineTraffic data showed vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell 28% to 77 voyages. Loaded voyages declined from 45 to 33. Traffic from sanctioned vessels and shadow fleets fell from 50 to 23, while another 32 voyages used Irans unilateral passage mechanism.

Mandeb Strait Traffic Rebounds Further

MarineTraffic data showed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rose 9.7% to 248 voyages. Loaded shipping increased from 103 to 109 voyages. Dark-vessel traffic stayed near 23 voyages, while around 91% of vessels complied with the traffic separation scheme.

UBS Highlights Asset Allocation Timing

UBS strategists said that if rate-hike expectations trigger market volatility, investors may watch for pullback opportunities in equities with strong earnings prospects. They also suggested using the high-yield window in quality medium- and long-duration bonds, while reducing excess USD exposure when the dollar strengthens.

US Canada Trade Tensions Escalate

Canada plans to impose 15% to 50% tariffs on hundreds of US goods from Tuesday, including steel, motorcycles, cosmetics, and cheese. Some US steel tariffs will rise from 25% to 50%. Trump warned that Bombardier products could be banned from the US market unless the company builds plants in the United States.

ETO Markets Analyst View (Spot Gold)

From a daily-chart perspective, spot gold is currently trading between the 100-day simple moving average and the 20-day simple moving average. This shows that medium- to long-term moving-average support remains in place, while the short-term trend line still limits upside momentum. The Bollinger Band structure also shows that gold is clearly above the lower band, but has not yet challenged the upper band again. Overall, prices remain in a mid-range consolidation phase.

On the upside, the 4,465 area is the first immediate resistance level, near the 20-day simple moving average and the middle Bollinger Band. If buyers regain control, the next resistance may appear near the upper Bollinger Band around 4,675. On the downside, the 4,350 area, near the 100-day simple moving average, provides initial support. A further break lower would shift focus to the lower Bollinger Band near 4,260, where a deeper correction could open up.

RSI is near 51, staying in neutral territory. This suggests that bullish and bearish momentum remain relatively balanced, with no clear short-term breakout yet.

Markets are currently pricing US employment data, expectations for a September FED rate hike, USD moves, and changes in bond yields. Gold may continue to trade within a range in the short term.

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