ETO Markets Global Pulse: WTI Rebounds Above $75.50 as Hormuz Deal Nears

Market Review

According to ETO Markets monitoring, on August 5 (Wednesday), WTI crude closed slightly lower at USD 75.08 per barrel, down 0.08% on the day. Brent crude settled at USD 79.40 per barrel, up 0.9%. Investors continued to assess the outlook for the reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving oil prices caught between bullish and bearish forces.

On August 6 (Thursday) during Asian trading, WTI crude edged higher and traded above USD 75.50 per barrel. Brent crude traded around USD 80 per barrel. Trump said the US and Iran held “very good all-day talks,” while Irans Foreign Ministry denied that peace talks were underway. Iran only said it was working with Oman to finalize a joint statement on Strait of Hormuz management. Market sentiment remains cautious.

Global Headlines

Iran Oman Draft Strait Deal

Two Middle East officials said Iranian and Omani negotiators have finalized a draft agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal is now awaiting final approval from Irans Supreme Leader Mojtaba. Under the proposed temporary arrangement, vessels entering the Persian Gulf would use Iranian-controlled lanes, while vessels leaving the Gulf would use Omani-controlled lanes. Security and environmental service fees would also be charged.

Gulf Official Sees Even Odds

A senior Gulf official said the chance of a temporary US-Iran agreement this Friday is close to 50-50. The official noted that Irans delegation does not include hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps representatives, even though the group must approve any temporary agreement. The US said talks are progressing well, but warned that Iran would face severe strikes if it withdraws again.

Iran Seeks Strait Transit Fees

Senior Iranian sources and regional officials said the proposed Iran-Oman agreement would give Iran control over vessels entering the Gulf. Iran is seeking to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz a fee equal to 5% to 7% of cargo value. Oman is discussing a lower fee of around 3%, while the US wants no fee at all. A voluntary payment structure may become one way to break the deadlock.

FED September Hike Odds Rise

According to CME FEDWatch data, markets price a 45.6% probability that the FED keeps rates unchanged in September, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike stands at 54.4%. By October, the probability of no change is 33.5%, the chance of a 25bp hike is 52.1%, and the chance of a 50bp hike is 14.5%. By December, the probability of at least 50bp in hikes stands at 35.6%.

Cook Ready To Support Hikes

FED Governor Cook said she is prepared to support rate hikes if inflation does not slow. She warned that policymakers may not have room to wait until inflation returns to the 2% target. Cook said inflation has remained above target for years, raising the risk that persistent inflation becomes embedded in price and wage-setting behavior. She also noted that weaker tariff effects, lower oil prices, and easing pressure from the AI boom could help buffer inflation.

Goldman Keeps KOSPI Target

Goldman Sachs maintained its 12,000-point target for the KOSPI, implying around 80% to 90% upside for the Korean market. Tim Moe, Goldmans chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist, said confidence is driven by a stronger and longer earnings cycle. Goldman believes the market has not fully priced in a severe memory-chip shortage that could last until 2030, with semiconductors remaining the core earnings driver for Korean equities.

ETO Markets Analyst View (WTI Crude)

WTI crude remains below the key 81.70 resistance level, and the short-term structure still points to downside pressure. If prices continue to trade below 81.70, the 78.50 area remains an important reference level. A sustained break below 78.50 may open further downside toward 76.50.

If WTI breaks back above 81.70 and holds this level, short-term downside pressure may ease. In that case, prices may test 83.50 first and then extend toward 85.50.

Technical structure shows that 78.50 remains an important short-term support area. A break below this level could trigger a further move toward 76.50. Markets are still repricing the Hormuz draft agreement, the outlook for a temporary US-Iran deal, Strait transit fee arrangements, and FED policy expectations. Please carefully assess trading rhythm and risk exposure.

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