USD/JPY Forex Technical Analysis – Counter-Trend Sellers May Be Targeting 112.760 Pivot
he Dollar/Yen closed lower for a third consecutive session on Friday as investors continued to book profits following a 12 session rally that drove the Forex pair into its highest level since early November 2017.
With the financial markets nearly discounting the prospects of a first U.S. rate hike by next July in recent days, the dollar has become more sensitive to risk sentiment.
On Friday, the USD/JPY settled at 113.495, down 0.522 or 0.46%.
The Dollar/Yen lost ground despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hitting 1.68% on Friday, after the latest weekly jobless claims report came in lower than expected in the previous session.
Bullish investors may have also been influenced by comments from a Fed official. Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Thursday that he sees an interest rate hike coming in the “late third, maybe early fourth” quarter of 2022, as inflation persists. This is later than the financial futures forecast calling for a July 2022 lift-off in rates. The remark may have encouraged a few long Dollar/Yen longs to take profits and pare positions.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on October 20, 2021.
A trade through 114.694 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal the resumption of the uptrend.
The main trend will change to down on a trade through 110.826. This is highly unlikely but there is room to the downside before the next support level.
The closing price reversal top is a potentially bearish chart pattern, but it doesnt necessarily signal a change in trend. Often the chart pattern is designed to alleviate some of the upside pressure.
In this case, we could see a 2 to 3 day pullback into the short-term 50% level at 112.760 before new buyers show up.
The 12-day rally suggests that investors were pricing in the start of Fed tapering in November and a possible rate hike by July 2022. Now that the tapering is a given, traders may have decided to book profits while they await more clues about the timing of the first Fed rate hike at the November 2-3 monetary policy meeting.
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