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    European Equities: Brexit, COVID-19, and Capitol Hill in Focus

    Abstract:Economic data from the U.S, COVID-19, Brexit, and Capitol Hill will provide the majors with direction on the day.

      Economic Calendar:Friday, 13th November

      ECB President Lagarde Speaks

      French CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final

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      French HICP (MoM) (Oct) Final

      Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct) Final

      Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct) Final

      Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2nd Estimate

      Eurozone Trade Balance (Sep)

      [fx-article-ad]The Majors

      A run of 3 consecutive days in the green came to an end for the European majors on Thursday. The CAC40 and the DAX30 led the way down, with losses of 1.52% and 1.24% respectively, with the EuroStoxx600 falling by 0.88%.

      After the market reaction to progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine in the 1st half of the week, concerns over COVID-19 weighed.

      Lockdown measures across Eurozone member states and the continued rise in new COVID-19 cases pressured the majors.

      A lack of progress towards a stimulus package on Capitol Hill amidst Trumps refusal to concede also tested support.

      The Stats

      It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included Germanys finalized inflation and Eurozone industrial production figures.

      Germany

      According to Destatis,

      German consumer prices rose by 0.1% in October, which was in line with prelim. In September, consumer prices had fallen by 0.2%.

      Compared with October 2019, the prices of goods were down by 1.5%, which was attributed to a 6.8% slump in energy products. Excluding energy products, the annual rate of inflation stood at 0.6%, while the harmonized index of consumer prices fell by 0.5%.

      The Eurozone

      Industrial production fell by 0.4% in the month of September, following a revised 0.6% increase in August. Economists had forecast a 0.7% rise.

      According to Eurostat,

    •   Production of durable consumer goods slid by 5.3%, with energy production falling by 1.0%.

    •   By contrast, the production of intermediate goods rose by 0.5%, capital goods by 0.6%, and non-durable consumer goods by 2.1%.

    •   Italy (-5.6%), Ireland (-4.7%), and Portugal (-3.8%) saw the largest declines.

    •   Year-on-year, industrial production tumbled by 6.8%.

    •   Ireland (-13.6%), Germany (-8.7%), and France and the Netherlands (both -6.1%) saw the largest decreases.

      The ECB

      The Economic Bulletin delivered some markets with a reality check on the day. Salient points from the minutes included:

    •   The resurgence in COVID-19 infections presents renewed challenges to public health and economic growth prospects.

    •   Incoming information signals that the euro area economic recovery is losing momentum more rapidly than expected.

    •   Containment measures are weighing on activity, leading to a clear deterioration in the near-term outlook.

    •   Incoming data for the global economy is also showing that momentum is slowing, after a strong 3rd quarter recovery.

    •   Weak labor market prospects and uncertainty is weighing on consumer behavior.

    •   Monetary policy measures introduced in early March are helping to preserve favorable financial conditions.

    •   At the same time, however, the current environment of risks is clearly tilted to the downside.

    •   Decembers macroeconomic projections will allow a thorough reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks.

    •   Based on the projections, the Governing Council will recalibrate its instruments as appropriate.

      From the U.S

      Economic data included October inflation and weekly jobless claims figures.

      In October, the annual core rate of inflation softened from 1.7% to 1.6%, with core consumer prices stalling in October.

      Core consumer prices had risen by 0.2% in September.

      Of greater interest, however, were the weekly jobless claims figures. Initial jobless claims fell from a revised 757k to 709k in the week ending 6th October.

      The Market Movers

      For the DAX:It was another mixed day for the auto sector on Thursday.Daimler slid by 2.88% to lead the way down, with Continentaland Volkswagenfalling by 0.28% and by 0.46% respectively. BMWbucked the trend with a 0.09% gain.

      It was a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bankfell by 1.02%, with Commerzbankending the day with a 0.02% loss.

      From the CAC, it was another bearish day for the banks, with BNP Paribassliding by 3.76% to lead the way down. Credit Agricoleand Soc Genfell by 2.42% and by 2.10% respectively.

      It was also a mixed day for the French auto sector. Peugeotfell by 2.20%, while Renaultrose by 0.75%.

      Air France-KLMsaw a modest 0.63% loss, while Airbus SEslid by 2.75%.

      On the VIX Index

      It was just a 3rd day in the green from eleven for the VIX on Thursday. Reversing a 3.69% fall from Wednesday, the VIX rose by 8.10% to end the day at 25.35.

      Negative sentiment towards the COVID-19 pandemic and reintroduction of containment measures weighed. A lack of progress towards a stimulus package was also negative for riskier assets on the day.

      On Thursday, the Dow and the S&P500 fell by 1.08% and by 1.00% respectively. The NASDAQ ended the day with a more modest 0.65% loss.

      [fx-image src=https://www.tradingview.com/x/lCLPIhCd/ data-zoom-target=https://www.tradingview.com/x/lCLPIhCd/ originalWidth=941 ratio=1.52]

      The Day Ahead

      Its another relatively busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats from the Eurozone include 2nd estimate GDP and September trade figures for the Eurozone.

      Finalized October inflation figures for France and Spain are also due out.

      Barring a marked deviation from prelim figures, however, the stats are unlikely to have too much influence. We also expect trade data for the Eurozone to also have a muted impact on the markets.

      From the U.S, prelim Consumer Sentiment figures for November will likely garner some interest late in the session, however.

      Away from the economic calendar, Brexit and COVID-19 news updates, and U.S politics will continue to need monitoring.

      The Futures

      In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 48 points, while the DAX was down by 78.5 points.

      For a look at all of todays economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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