|

資訊

    首頁   >     行業    >     正文

    Crude Oil Prices Eye Monthly-High as US Delays China Tariffs

    摘要:The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly-low ($50.52) as the US delays the next tranche of China tariffs to December 15.

      Oil Price Talking Points

      The price of oil extends the rebound from the monthly-low ($50.52) as the US delays a portion of the next tranche of China tariffs to December 15, and recent price action raises the risk for a larger correction as crude extends the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week.

      Crude Oil Prices Eye Monthly-High as US Delays China Tariffs

      Crude prices may continue to catch a bid as China pledge to hold talks with US representatives in two weeks, and fresh details of an imminent trade agreement should keep oil afloat as it instills an improved outlook for consumption.

      It remains to be seen if a resolution will be reached ahead of the new deadline as the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) weakens the Yuan reference rate, and Chinese officials may take additional steps to insulate the economy as the 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report shows the growth rate slipping to a fresh record low of 6.2%.

      At the same time, the US may continue to adjust its trade policy as President Donald Trump tweets that “the tens of billions of dollars that the U.S. is receiving is a gift from China,” and little indications of a looming trade deal may continue to drag on oil prices amid the weakening outlook for global growth.

      In turn, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies may take additional steps to balance the energy market, and the group may curb production throughout 2019 in response to the pickup in US output.

    Image

      The latest update from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude inventories unexpectedly increasing for the first time in eight weeks, with stockpiles climbing 2385K in the week ending August 2, while oil production increased to 12,300K from 12,200K during the same period.

      The rise in US crude output may become a growing concern for OPEC and its allies, but the group appears to be in no rush to announce additional measures to balance the energy market as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) states that “in 2019, the global oil demand growth forecast remains at 1.14mb/d, with expectations for global oil demand to reach 99.87 mb/d.”

      With that said, OPEC and its allies may stick to the status quo ahead of the next meeting on December 5, but the lack of response may continue to drag on crude prices amid the lingering threat of a US-China trade war.

      As a result, oil prices remain at risk of facing a bear market especially as a ‘death-cross’ formation takes shape in July.

      Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups.

      Crude Oil Daily Chart

    Image
    •   Keep in mind, the broader outlook for crude oil is no longer constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish trends from earlier this year.

    •   At the same time, a ‘death cross’ formation has taken shape in July as the 50-Day SMA ($55.97) crosses below the 200-Day SMA ($56.53), with both moving averages tracking a negative slope.

    •   However, the price of oil appears to be making a run at the August-high ($57.99) following the failed attempt to test the Fibonacci overlap around $48.80 (38.2% expansion) to $49.80 (78.6% retracement), with a break of the monthly opening range raising the risk for a move towards $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement).

    •   Nevertheless, failure to test the August-high ($57.99) may bring the downside targets back on the radar as the RSI continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year, with the first area of interest coming in around $54.90 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) followed by the $51.40 (50% retracement) to $51.80 (50% expansion) region.

      For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

      Additional Trading Resources

      Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

      Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

    熱點資訊

    United Arab Emirates Dirham

    • United Arab Emirates Dirham
    • Australia Dollar
    • Canadian Dollar
    • Swiss Franc
    • Chinese Yuan
    • Danish Krone
    • Euro
    • British Pound
    • Hong Kong Dollar
    • Hungarian Forint
    • Japanese Yen
    • South Korean Won
    • Mexican Peso
    • Malaysian Ringgit
    • Norwegian Krone
    • New Zealand Dollar
    • Polish Zloty
    • Russian Ruble
    • Saudi Arabian Riyal
    • Swedish Krona
    • Singapore Dollar
    • Thai Baht
    • Turkish Lira
    • United States Dollar
    • South African Rand

    United States Dollar

    • United Arab Emirates Dirham
    • Australia Dollar
    • Canadian Dollar
    • Swiss Franc
    • Chinese Yuan
    • Danish Krone
    • Euro
    • British Pound
    • Hong Kong Dollar
    • Hungarian Forint
    • Japanese Yen
    • South Korean Won
    • Mexican Peso
    • Malaysian Ringgit
    • Norwegian Krone
    • New Zealand Dollar
    • Polish Zloty
    • Russian Ruble
    • Saudi Arabian Riyal
    • Swedish Krona
    • Singapore Dollar
    • Thai Baht
    • Turkish Lira
    • United States Dollar
    • South African Rand
    當前匯率  :
    --
    請輸入金額
    United Arab Emirates Dirham
    可兌換金額
    -- United States Dollar
    風險提示

    外匯天眼資料均來自各國外匯監管機構的官方資料,如英國FCA、澳大利亞ASIC等,所公佈的內容亦均以公正、客觀和實事求是為宗旨,不向外匯交易平臺收取公關費、廣告費、排名費、資料清洗費等灰色費用。外匯天眼會盡最大努力保持我方資料與各監管機構等權威資料方資料的一致及同步性,但不承諾與其即時保持一致和同步。

    鑒於外匯行業的錯綜複雜,不排除有個別外匯交易商通過欺騙手段獲得監管機構的合法註冊。如外匯天眼所公佈資料與實際情況有不符之處,請通過外匯天眼“投訴”和“糾正”功能,向我們提出,我們將及時進行核實查證,並公佈相關結果。

    外匯、貴金屬和差價合約(OTC場外交易)是槓桿產品,存在較高的風險,可能會導致虧損您的投資本金,請理性投資。

    特別提示,外匯天眼所列資訊僅供參考,不構成投資建議。外匯平臺由客戶自行選擇,平臺操作帶來的風險,與外匯天眼無關,客戶需自行承擔相關後果和責任。

    ×

    選擇國家/地區