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    New Japanese Leader Seeks to End ‘Curse’ of Revolving-Door Premiers

    Abstract:The last time a long-serving Japanese prime minister stepped down, the country saw about six leaders in quick succession who each only managed to last for about a year.

      The last time a long-serving Japanese prime minister stepped down, the country saw about six leaders in quick succession who each only managed to last for about a year.

      Shinzo Abe, who is set to hand over power on Wednesday, then brought stability over an eight-year period that saw him become Japans longest-serving prime minister. The challenge now is for his designated successor, Yoshihide Suga, to continue that run.

      “If anyone has a chance of breaking the ‘curse,’ it‘s Suga,” said Tobias Harris, an analyst at advisory firm Teneo Intelligence and author of a new biography of Abe. “His ability to control the bureaucracy, his relationships with the ruling coalition, and the public’s desire to avoid a return to the revolving door all suggest that he could be well positioned to win a term of his own next year and wield power for several years.”

      Suga, the 71-year-old son of a northern strawberry farmer, easily won a vote Monday to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and will be formally installed as prime minister during a parliamentary vote on Wednesday. He‘ll initially serve the remaining year of Abe’s term in office, though some key party members have raised the prospect he may soon call an election to get a fresh mandate while the opposition remains weak.

      Despite the devastation to the economy due to the coronavirus, Suga inherits a relatively stable Japan: Abe gradually improved frayed ties with China, safeguarded Japan‘s military and economic interests after U.S. President Donald Trump took office and eased worries in financial markets. Investors had little reaction to Suga’s victory on Monday, signaling they dont see a departure from the path of Abenomics -- a prospect that could send the yen surging and stocks sliding.

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    For more on Japan‘s political change:
    • Japan’s Continuity Candidate Suga Could Also Dial In Reform{11}
    • After Push to Empower Women, Japan Can‘t Find One to Be Premier
    • Japan’s Ultimate Insider Faces Test Navigating U.S.-China Feud
    • Japan Cabinet Support Leaps as Prime Minister Abe Heads for Exit{} 18 须贺也有过安倍晋三的前辈一定的优势谁很快由于政策绊倒或丑闻失去了公众的支持。在之前,安倍的记录运行的50年中,日本平均为新首相大约每两年一次。 [18] 首先,菅与已经基本上未能在过去八年中提出的选民支持方面构成威胁的反对派祝福。一系列的自民党首相的看到他们的政策议程受阻于国会的反对党主导的上院,在党的历史性选举惨败给日本民主党在2009年达到高潮。扩展反对派阵营上周重组领导下的枝野幸男,谁发誓,要求议会公开辩论冠状政策。但在每日新闻一项民调显示是t的没有必须的主要反对派阵营利好预期受访邻三分之二。“我不认为有总理的迅速周转资金的可能性很大,”玉内山说:在东京大学谁写了日本政治书籍教授。 “为什么会发生之前,党让强大的派别推翻首屈一指的,或‘扭曲国会’是阻碍管理中的薄弱地位的原因。”安倍置于引领日本通过2021选大运在{} 24 不过,这也难倒了其他领导人的障碍是在菅的路径,包括一些他的同事和逮捕贿赂相关的竞选资金丑闻他在日本开设赌场度假村的宠物项目。菅尚未直接涉及任何的这些问题。 {24} 虽然各派现在支持他,他们拥有的是善变的历史。自民党有时却显得更丰富的内容洗牌派系高层职位,以保持比背部的领导者长期的内部稳定 - 如果菅使得一些早期的失误,可能再度出现一个趋势{} 27 在新的领导人也将负责的经济,看到了有记录以来的最大收缩在四月至六月季度的病毒命中消费。虽然其Covid-19的死亡人数是迄今为止最低的七国集团任何国家,处理大流行的橱柜经常面临着各种批评。 {27} {28} 一个外卡是Sugas技能定时选举 - 在电力帮助安倍呆那么久的一个因素。在2017年,他和安倍截止由东京都知事小池百合子的最高职位的投标由她的新组准备调用之前提前举行大选。 {} 28{15}

      The ease of Sugas victory is a good sign for his ability to manage the LDP factions. The party coalesced around him almost as soon as Abe announced his intent to step down over health issues in late August. Instead of a bruising fight, faction bosses opted for an election system that favored Suga, and within two days had lined up enough support for him to win -- even before official campaigning had started.

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      While Suga doesn‘t have his own formal faction, he has honed his skills as a pragmatic backroom fixer during his time as Japan’s longest-serving chief cabinet secretary. His strong alliances with the likes of Toshihiro Nikai, an influential faction leader as well as LDP secretary general, underpinned his win on Monday.

      {17}{18}

      Suga also has certain advantages over Abe‘s predecessors who quickly lost public support due to policy stumbles or scandals. In the 50 years prior to Abe’s record run, Japan averaged a new prime minister about every two years.

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      For one, Suga‘s blessed with an opposition that has largely failed to pose a threat in terms of voter support over the past eight years. A series of LDP prime ministers saw their policy agendas stymied in the opposition-dominated upper house of parliament, culminating in the party’s historic election defeat to the Democratic Party of Japan in 2009.

      {20}{21}

      An expanded opposition bloc regrouped last week under leader Yukio Edano, who vowed to demand parliament open to debate coronavirus policy. But a poll in the Mainichi newspaper showed that two-thirds of respondents didnt have positive expectations for the main opposition bloc.

      {21}{22}

      “I don‘t think there’s a high probability of a quick turnover of prime ministers,” said Yu Uchiyama, a professor at the University of Tokyo who has written books on Japanese politics. “The reasons why that happened before were weak standing within the party enabling powerful factions to oust a premier, or a ‘twisted parliament’ that hampered management.”

      {22}{777}

      Abe Placed to Lead Japan Through 2021 After Big Election Win

      {777}{24}

      Still, hurdles that have tripped up other leaders are in Suga‘s path, including a campaign finance scandal with some of his associates and arrests for bribery related to his pet project of opening casino resorts in Japan. Suga hasn’t been directly implicated in any of these issues.

      {24}{25}

      And while the factions back him now, they have a history of being fickle. The LDP at times has seemed more content to shuffle top posts among factions to maintain internal stability than back a leader for the long term -- a trend that could reemerge if Suga makes some early missteps.

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      The new leader will also take charge of an economy that saw the biggest contraction on record in the April-June quarter as the virus hit consumption. While its Covid-19 death toll is by far the lowest of any Group of Seven country, the cabinets handling of the pandemic has often come in for criticism.

      {27}{28}

      One wild card is Sugas skill in timing elections -- a factor that helped Abe stay in power so long. In 2017, he and Abe cut off a bid for the top job by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike by calling a snap election before her new group was prepared.

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      Suga has said he doesn‘t think the country’s in a situation to call an election due to the virus -- and polls indicate the public agrees. But that could change as a second Covid-19 wave fades: Tokyo successfully held a governor election in July.

      {30}

      With the LDP almost guaranteed victory whenever the vote is held in the coming year, Suga could then head into the 2021 party leadership election with a huge advantage as the incumbent prime minister, opening the way for another term at the top -- and keeping the revolving door firmly shut.

      “I think Mr. Suga will work hard and aim for a long administration,” said LDP lawmaker Katsuei Hirasawa, a member of the leading Nikai faction. “There are a lot of things he wants to do.”

      — With assistance by Emi Nobuhiro

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