摘要:Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of DoubleLine Capital nicknamed “King of Bonds”, said he is expecting US dollar to go weak. He pointed out that due to US dollar’s relevance to the “twin deficits” of US in current account and budgets, the currency will likely drop in price.
Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of DoubleLine Capital nicknamed “King of Bonds”, said he is expecting US dollar to go weak. He pointed out that due to US dollars relevance to the “twin deficits” of US in current account and budgets, the currency will likely drop in price. “As foreign investors withdraw their capital, which I think will be a main trend in several years to come, the US dollar may significantly depreciate, starting from this year.”
With a spending larger than income, US budget deficit for the first 3 months in fiscal year 2020 has expanded to US$356.6 billion, and if the trend continues, the Federal government‘s deficit may exceed US$1 trillion by the end of this year, which will be the highest since the financial crisis. Gundlach’s DoubleLine Capital manages approximately US$150 billion of assets, and he has been warning about decline of USD since January, 2018. Should his prophecy come true, Gundlach expects the price of gold and other commodities will benefit.
He also said the predictive indicators signaling economic recession are “flashing yellow”, pointing out that theres a 30%-35% likelihood for US economy to decline in the 2020. If PMI and consumer confidence index go low while unemployment increases, chance for a recession will be even bigger.
He also estimate that emerging markets will perform well this year, so investors should seek to purchase stock and bonds from these areas. As for political outlook, Gundlach thinks the greatest uncertainty facing US financial market will be Liberal Partys candidate for the presidential election, Bernard Sanders, as he sees the independent senate from Vermont to be the most promising in representing the Liberal Party in the 2020 presidential election.
免責聲明:
本文觀點僅代表作者個人觀點,不構成本平台的投資建議,本平台不對文章信息準確性、完整性和及時性作出任何保證,亦不對因使用或信賴文章信息引發的任何損失承擔責任
澳元兌美元前景: 澳元/美元在未能清除 100 日簡單移動平均線附近的上方阻力後擴大回調 上週發生的突破似乎是假突破 本文著眼於未來交易時段需要關注的澳元/美元關鍵技術水平
聯準會緊縮前景面臨的變數正在增加,甚至不排除突然轉向的可能,美元接下來恐將面臨嚴峻甚至殘酷的考驗!
受到巴以衝突事態加劇的影響,避險情緒持續升溫提振美元;市場聚焦衝突是否會擴散至其他伊斯蘭國家,在中東政治緊張局勢未降溫之前,市場情緒或是美元的主要驅動因素;在技術面,關注走勢能否突破關鍵阻力區域。
澳幣相對於美元取得了謹慎進展;目前,澳元/美元仍廣泛傾向下行跌,但上升趨勢仍得以維持。