|

资讯

    首页   >     行业    >     正文

    Gold Prices May Fall as US CPI Data Cools Fed Rate Cut Bets

    摘要:Gold prices may turn lower as US inflation data prints near the Feds target, cooling increasingly dramatic speculation about an incoming interest rate cut cycle.

      GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

    •   Gold prices probe higher, but chart setup warns of exhaustion

    •   US CPI data may cool Fed rate cut bets, boost the US Dollar

    •   Crude oil prices up on Aramco earnings, API inventories due

      Gold prices rose as market-wide risk appetite unraveled once again, pushing bond yields lower alongside stocks and boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives. The usually sentiment-geared crude oil prices managed to sidestep the selloff as Saudi state-owned oil giant Aramco revealed it slashed capital spending by a hefty 12 percent in the past year, stoking bets on reduced supply.

      GOLD, CRUDE OIL PRICES MAY FALL AS US CPI DATA COOLS FED RATE CUT BETS

      Looking ahead, Julys US CPI data dominates the spotlight. The core inflation rate is expected to print at 2.1 percent while the headline number ticks up from a four-month low to 1.7 percent on-year. While the Fed targets the perennially lower PCE measure of price growth (1.6 percent on-year as of June), outcomes in line with expectations may nevertheless cool Fed rate cut speculation.

      As it stands, the markets are certain that more easing is due at next month‘s FOMC meeting, with a 67.7 percent chance of a 25bps cut and a nontrivial 32.4 percent probability of a 50bps one. For its part, the central bank has been far less exuberantly dovish in its guidance than investors’ bets imply. Firm CPI data might pointedly suggest that markets have over-extrapolated.

      Gold prices seem likely to suffer if the baseline outlook for Fed monetary policy is adjusted to a relatively less-dovish setting. The shift would probably boost the US Dollar and undermine the appeal of a non-yielding anti-fiat alternative. The Greenbacks gains may be amplified as diminished scope for accommodation in the current jittery environment makes for a risk-off tilt to overall sentiment trends.

      Crude oil may revert to its place on the pro-risk side of the global asset spectrum, which would make it vulnerable in this scenario. API inventory flow data might muddy the waters somewhat however. It will be judged against expectations of a 1.57-million-barrel drawdown expected to emerge out of official EIA numbers due Wednesday.

      Get our free guide to help build confidence in your gold and crude oil trading strategy!

      GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

      Gold prices are probing above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1513.94, with a break higher confirmed on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 1540.70 next. Negative RSI divergence warns of ebbing upside momentum however, hinting that a turn might be brewing ahead. A turn back below the 50% Fib at 1492.31 initially targets the 38.2% expansion at 1470.68.

    Gold

      Gold price chart created using TradingView

      CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

      Crude oil prices are retesting the 54.72-56.09 inflection area, with a daily close above its upper layer exposing falling trend line resistance defining a broadly bearish bias since late May (now at 58.86). Immediate support is in the 49.41-50.60 zone. Slipping below that would put the spotlight on the 49.41-50.60 region next.

    Crude

      Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

      COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

    •   See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices

    •   Having trouble with your strategy? Heres the #1 mistake that traders make

    •   Join a free webinar and have your commodity market questions answered

    热点资讯

    阿联酋迪拉姆

    • 阿联酋迪拉姆
    • 澳元
    • 加元
    • 瑞士法郎
    • 人民币
    • 丹麦克朗
    • 欧元
    • 英镑
    • 港币
    • 匈牙利福林
    • 日元
    • 韩元
    • 墨西哥比索
    • 林吉特
    • 挪威克朗
    • 新西兰元
    • 波兰兹罗提
    • 俄罗斯卢布
    • 沙特里亚尔
    • 瑞典克朗
    • 新加坡元
    • 泰铢
    • 土耳其里拉
    • 美元
    • 南非兰特

    美元

    • 阿联酋迪拉姆
    • 澳元
    • 加元
    • 瑞士法郎
    • 人民币
    • 丹麦克朗
    • 欧元
    • 英镑
    • 港币
    • 匈牙利福林
    • 日元
    • 韩元
    • 墨西哥比索
    • 林吉特
    • 挪威克朗
    • 新西兰元
    • 波兰兹罗提
    • 俄罗斯卢布
    • 沙特里亚尔
    • 瑞典克朗
    • 新加坡元
    • 泰铢
    • 土耳其里拉
    • 美元
    • 南非兰特
    当前汇率  :
    --
    请输入金额
    阿联酋迪拉姆
    可兑换金额
    -- 美元
    风险提示

    WikiFX数据均来自各国外汇监管机构的官方数据,如英国FCA、澳大利亚ASIC等,所公布的内容亦均以公正、客观和实事求是为宗旨,不向外汇交易平台收取公关费、广告费、排名费、数据清洗费等灰色费用。WikiFX会尽最大努力保持我方数据与各监管机构等权威数据方数据的一致及同步性,但不承诺与其实时保持一致和同步。

    鉴于外汇行业的错综复杂,不排除有个别外汇交易商通过欺骗手段获得监管机构的合法注册。如WikiFX所公布数据与实际情况有不符之处,请通过WikiFX“投诉”和“纠错”功能,向我们提出,我们将及时进行核实查证,并公布相关结果。

    外汇、贵金属和差价合约(OTC场外交易)是杠杆产品,存在较高的风险,可能会导致亏损您的投资本金,请理性投资。

    特别提示,WikiFX所列信息仅供参考,不构成投资建议。外汇平台由客户自行选择,平台操作带来的风险,与WikiFX无关,客户需自行承担相关后果和责任。

    ×

    选择国家/地区