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    Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Rise but Fail To Recapture Resistance

    Abstract:Consumption is expected to fall in 2021

      Natural gas prices moved higher on Monday, rising 1.46% but was unable to recapture resistance levels. The weather is expected to be cooler than normal throughout the southcentral and mid-west regions for the next 6-10 and 8-14 days according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The EIA expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will be down 0.4% from 2020.

      Technical Analysis

      Natural gas prices moved higher on Monday but failed to recapture resistance near the 10-day moving average at 2.57. Target resistance is seen near the mid-March highs at 2.69 and then the 50-day moving average at 2.73. Support is seen near the April lows at 2.45. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

      The EIA Expects Consumption to Fall

      EIA expects that U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2021, down 0.4% from 2020. The decline in U.S. natural gas consumption is a result of less natural gas consumed for electric power generation because of higher natural gas prices compared with last year. In 2021, we expect residential and commercial natural gas consumption will rise by a total of 1.1 Bcf/d from 2020 and industrial consumption will rise by 1.4 Bcf/d from 2020.

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