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    Euro May Fall if Macron Extends France's Virus Lockdown

    Abstract:The Euro may weaken versus the US Dollar if French President Emmanuel Macron announces an extended virus lockdown. Will other EU states echo his policy measure?

      Euro Analysis, EUR/USD, French President Emmanuel Macron, Coronavirus– Talking Points

    •   The Euro could suffer if Macron extends French coronavirus lockdown

    •   Other states may mimic second-largest Eurozone economys decision

    •   EUR/USD broke out of compression zone but gains could be capped

      Asia-Pacific Recap

      Initially, crude oil prices and US equity futures pointed higher after OPEC struck an historic production cut agreement over the weekend. However, what appeared to be a flicker of optimism initially quickly deteriorated into a risk-off tilt as growth-oriented assets turned lower. Asia-Pacific equities were generally mixed while the Japanese Yen edged higher against its G10 counterparts.

      Euro Eyes French President Emmanuel Macron Easter Speech

      The Euro may fall if French President Emmanuel Macron hints at extending the lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus. The prospect of a prolonged period of weaker consumption and higher unemployment because of shelter-in-place orders in the second-largest Eurozone economy could send a chilling message across the region.

      Other states may follow out of concern that a premature opening could risk a second wave of contagion. While Eurozone finance ministers were able to make some progress on a unified agreement for stimulus, additional may be needed if the shelter-in-place orders are extended. The main elements of the emergency package include revised credit lines from the ESM and a new 100 billion euro unemployment insurance policy.

      But the debate on how to deal with spending and structural issues after the coronavirus crisis is dealt with remain at the back of everyones minds. Learn more about market-moving political rifts here.

      EUR/USD Price Chart

      EUR/USD has broken above resistance labelled as “Downtrend Alpha” and out of the compression zone. However, the victory for Euro bulls may be short-lived as the pair mounts to challenge former support-turned-resistance between 1.0981 and 1.0989. If EUR/USD capitulates, it may instill a sense of discouragement and pressure the pair to retesting support at 1.0783.

      EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

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