logo |

資訊

    首頁   >     行業    >     GOLDWELL    >     正文

    GOLDWELL:Daily Market Recap - EURUSD Stable below the 1.20 mark

    摘要:The euro remained stable against the dollar on Friday, in a foreign exchange market without conviction, the greenback remaining close to its lowest in a month against the single European currency.

    The euro remained stable against the dollar on Friday, in a foreign exchange market without conviction, the greenback remaining close to its lowest in a month against the single European currency.

    At market close on Friday, the euro clawed back 0.14 percent against the dollar, at 1.19817 dollars to the euro, rounding off a 0.71 percent for the EURUSD on a weekly basis. The pair has firmly bounced off its monthly low at around 1.17 and put in 2 consecutive weeks of bullish performance.

    Forex traders remain hesitant on the value of the greenback, which after having started the year on the hoof (it is still rising by 2% against the euro year to date), has weakened since the beginning of the month.

    However, the signals are accumulating on a rapid recovery in the United States: consumer morale up, inflation high, unemployment registrations down...

    But “strong US data is no longer enough to carry the dollar”, commented Esther Reichelt, an analyst at Commerzbank, who believes that “the positive effect of Joe Biden's stimulus plan and the speed of the vaccination campaign is already taken into account in the price of the dollar”.

    As for the second investment plan of the U.S. president, focused on infrastructure, “we will have to wait until this summer to know to what extent it will be adopted, it is too vague for now to benefit the dollar,” she said.

    “The clear message from the Fed (U.S. Central Bank) plays a role” in the dollar's lack of responsiveness to good U.S. news, judged Derek Halpenny, an analyst at MUFG.

    Forex traders would find the dollar more attractive if rates were higher, but the Fed has promised at every opportunity to keep monetary policy loose to support the recovery, even if inflation climbs momentarily.

    Looking forward in terms of fundamentals, the evolution of the EURUSD will depend very much on the evolution of US long rates. The pair has been rebounding since U.S. long rates started to stall. Further highs in the U.S. 10-year yield would likely rekindle demand for Treasuries from international investors, which would put pressure on the euro.

    In addition to developments in Treasuries, the EURUSD will also be influenced by developments in the European health situation. If European governments were to extend health restrictions again, the euro would again come under pressure. Conversely, if the restrictions are not extended and the vaccination campaign continues to accelerate as scheduled, the euro is likely to continue to rise.

    In the short term, the next catalysts to watch will be the releases of US industrial production and retail sales as well as the New York and Philadelphia federal district manufacturing indices this afternoon. The Chinese GDP release tonight will also be an important factor for EURUSD, as a better-than-expected release would support demand for the yuan, which would put pressure on the dollar as the greenback is the main counterpart of the yuan (and most currencies).

    image.png

    (Chart Source: Tradingview 18.04.2021)

    From a technical perspective, the immediate resistance is clearly seen at the 1.20 mark. Traders will be paying close attention to the price action in the run-up to a potential fourth test of that level in the coming week. Should the euro bulls fail yet again to close above, sellers may see this as a sign of uncertainty and drive the rate back towards its lower bound target of 1.19. Traders may take advantage of this range-bound movement between 1.20 and 1.19 to determine short-term entry levels for buy/sell orders.

    Support & Resistance Levels:

    R3 1.21000

    R2 1.20657

    R1 1.12000

    S1 1.19431

    S2 1.18883

    S3 1.18000

    Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.

    Hong Kong Dollar

    • United Arab Emirates Dirham
    • Australia Dollar
    • Canadian Dollar
    • Swiss Franc
    • Chinese Yuan
    • Danish Krone
    • Euro
    • British Pound
    • Hong Kong Dollar
    • Hungarian Forint
    • Japanese Yen
    • South Korean Won
    • Mexican Peso
    • Malaysian Ringgit
    • Norwegian Krone
    • New Zealand Dollar
    • Polish Zloty
    • Russian Ruble
    • Saudi Arabian Riyal
    • Swedish Krona
    • Singapore Dollar
    • Thai Baht
    • Turkish Lira
    • United States Dollar
    • South African Rand

    United States Dollar

    • United Arab Emirates Dirham
    • Australia Dollar
    • Canadian Dollar
    • Swiss Franc
    • Chinese Yuan
    • Danish Krone
    • Euro
    • British Pound
    • Hong Kong Dollar
    • Hungarian Forint
    • Japanese Yen
    • South Korean Won
    • Mexican Peso
    • Malaysian Ringgit
    • Norwegian Krone
    • New Zealand Dollar
    • Polish Zloty
    • Russian Ruble
    • Saudi Arabian Riyal
    • Swedish Krona
    • Singapore Dollar
    • Thai Baht
    • Turkish Lira
    • United States Dollar
    • South African Rand
    當前匯率  :
    --
    請輸入金額
    Hong Kong Dollar
    可兌換金額
    -- United States Dollar
    風險提示

    外匯天眼資料均來自各國外匯監管機構的官方資料,如英國FCA、澳大利亞ASIC等,所公佈的內容亦均以公正、客觀和實事求是為宗旨,不向外匯交易平臺收取公關費、廣告費、排名費、資料清洗費等灰色費用。外匯天眼會盡最大努力保持我方資料與各監管機構等權威資料方資料的一致及同步性,但不承諾與其即時保持一致和同步。

    鑑於外匯行業的錯綜複雜,不排除有個別外匯交易商通過欺騙手段獲得監管機構的合法註冊。如WikiFX所公佈數據與實際情況有不符之處,請通過WikiFX“投訴”和“糾錯”功能,向我們提出,我們將及時進行核實查證,並公佈相關結果。

    外匯、貴金屬和差價合約(OTC場外交易)是槓桿產品,存在較高的風險,可能會導致虧損您的投資本金,請理性投資。

    特別提示,外匯天眼所列資訊僅供參考,不構成投資建議。外匯平臺由客戶自行選擇,平臺操作帶來的風險,與外匯天眼無關,客戶需自行承擔相關後果和責任。