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    Crude Oil Price Update – Looking Top-Heavy with $67.33 to $66.84 First Downside Target

    Abstract:The direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $68.80.

      U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are edging higher on Friday, but inside yesterdays trading range, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. The market is being supported by expectations of higher global demand, especially from the United States and China, but gains may be being capped by concerns over the slow pace of global vaccinations.

      At 11:20 GMT, July WTI crude oil futures are trading $69.04, up $0.23 or +0.33%.

      In other news, on Tuesday OPEC+ said they would stick to agreed supply restraints. Yesterday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a bigger-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories. Both events proved to be supportive along with the delay in the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.

      Daily July WTI Crude OilDaily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

      The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $69.40 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A trade through $61.56 will change the main trend to down. This is highly unlikely, but with the market up nine sessions from its last main top, todays session begins with the market inside the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

      The minor trend is also up. A trade through $65.25 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

      The minor range is $65.25 to $69.40. Its retracement zone at $67.33 to $66.84 is the first potential downside target area.

      The main range is $61.56 to $69.40. Its retracement zone at $65.48 to $54.55 is the best value area at this time.

      Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

      The direction of the July WTI crude oil futures contract on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $68.80.

      Bullish Scenario

      A sustained move over $68.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for a move into $69.40. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

      Bearish Scenario

      A sustained move under $68.80 will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out $68.19 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a sharp break into the minor retracement zone at $67.33 to $66.84. Since the main trend is up, look for buyers on a test of this area.

      Side Notes

      Taking out $69.40 then closing lower for the session will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

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